Saturday, February 19, 2011

Signal update: gold (good), SPX (too early)

Since our Jan. 21, 2011 call, looking for a near-term bottom in gold, and based on our program Option Wizard® Trading Method Gold, after a rather slight $4 more to the downside, we have been some $48 to the good on gold:

1389.10 2/18/11
1355.90 2/11/11
1348.90 2/4/11
1337.90 1/28/11
1341.90 1/21/11

On Jan. 7, 2011 we posed the question: is the SPX running out of steam?





Now we have our answer: least, not yet. (1343.01, close, Friday, February 18, 2011.) And the way things are going, we could as easily pose the question, will the market ever go down again? We think we know the answer to that one: a) eventually and b) when you least expect it and c) when everyone is "all in." Again, stay tuned. We will be.

Friday, February 4, 2011

New: two-click options strategy backtesting

Say you're interested to initiate a condor or calendar or butterfly on, let's say, the RUT (Russell 2000), but you'd really like to know how many times it has moved more than, say, 6%, in say, 20 days, over the last 5 years.

And how does that compare to the SPX or SPY --- or the DIA, or QQQQs? Which trade is best -- in terms of "variance?" Actual market movement?

Now, you can find out in seconds via the new Option Wizard® Simplified Options Strategy (SOS) Backtester.

This will be of special interest to those among the options community who have spent hundreds of hours (literally) clicking through data, day-by-day, in other programs -- and we know there are legions of you other there (and we have been among you).

We use sample variance, and the (still amazing) power of Microsoft Excel and Visual Basic.

More info...