Gold advances on central bank buying and margin changes

Gold advances on central bank buying and margin changes

Commercial net short still lower

138,917

Gold $10 + from one week ago.   Gold bottoming here.  Or so it would appear.

What's next for gold? Here's one indicator

Lowest hedge level by commercials since --- gold was $895, 3 and 1/2 years ago.  Column to farthest right is net commercial contracts short:

-64.50	76.39%	(26,548)	1580.20	5/11/12	151,455
-19.10	83.59%	10,766	1644.70	5/4/12	178,003
21.00	85.73%	(8,854)	1663.80	4/27/12	167,237
-14.40	83.38%	5,042	1642.80	4/20/12	176,091
25.20	84.99%	(6,415)	1657.20	4/13/12	171,049
-37.20	82.18%	(7,612)	1632.00	4/6/12	177,464
5.50	86.33%	18,938	1669.20	3/30/12	185,076
4.30	85.72%	(25,550)	1663.70	3/23/12	166,138
-52.90	85.24%	(8,520)	1659.40	3/16/12	191,688
-0.20	91.14%	(45,143)	1712.30	3/9/12	200,208
-58.90	91.16%	16,049	1712.50	3/2/12	245,351
48.30	97.74%	19,894	1771.40	2/24/12	229,302
4.20	92.35%	(11,664)	1723.10	2/17/12	209,408
-6.50	91.88%	11,210	1718.90	2/10/12	221,072
-12.10	92.60%	30,094	1725.40	2/3/12	209,862
70.90	93.95%	6,792	1737.50	1/27/12	179,768
29.40	86.04%	6,402	1666.60	1/20/12	172,976
20.60	82.76%	4,731	1637.20	1/13/12	166,574
51.60	80.46%	(2,089)	1616.60	1/6/12	161,843
-40.00	74.70%	(622)	1565.00	12/30/11	163,932
7.50	79.16%	(21,663)	1605.00	12/23/11	164,554
-117.50	78.33%	(15,283)	1597.50	12/16/11	186,217
-30.30	91.44%	7,955	1715.00	12/9/11	201,500
56.80	94.82%	1,132	1745.30	12/2/11	193,545
-30.50	88.48%	(11,750)	1688.50	11/25/11	192,413
-54.00	91.89%	7,228	1719.00	11/18/11	204,163
24.00	97.92%	14,535	1773.00	11/11/11	196,935
4.60	95.24%	14,286	1749.00	11/4/11	182,400
105.70	94.72%	8,961	1744.40	10/28/11	168,114
-41.30	82.92%	(9,325)	1638.70	10/21/11	159,153
28.00	87.54%	3,727	1680.00	10/14/11	168,478
27.20	84.41%	(1,932)	1652.00	10/7/11	164,751
-22.20	81.37%	(30,945)	1624.80	9/30/11	166,683
-162.60	83.85%	(12,840)	1647.00	9/23/11	197,628
-49.80	102.00%	(17,246)	1809.60	9/16/11	210,468
-22.50	107.56%	10,359	1859.40	9/9/11	227,714
68.20	110.07%	(13,081)	1881.90	9/2/11	217,355
-32.70	102.46%	(18,411)	1813.70	8/26/11	230,436
101.20	106.11%	(359)	1846.40	8/19/11	248,847
86.90	94.81%	(38,428)	1745.20	8/12/11	249,206
33.40	85.11%	4,661	1658.30	8/5/11	287,634
22.50	81.38%	19,159	1624.90	7/29/11	282,973
8.30	78.87%	19,565	1602.40	7/22/11	263,814
50.10	77.95%	42,247	1594.10	7/15/11	244,249
57.70	72.35%	(6,753)	1544.00	7/8/11	202,002
-13.30	65.91%	(42,492)	1486.30	7/1/11	208,755
-37.90	67.40%	13,818	1499.60	6/24/11	251,247
5.00	71.63%	(10,255)	1537.50	6/17/11	237,429
-9.80	71.07%	7,176	1532.50	6/10/11	247,684
6.80	72.16%	23,271	1542.30	6/3/11	240,508
22.00	71.40%	10,288	1535.50	5/27/11	217,237
19.80	68.95%	(14,632)	1513.50	5/20/11	206,949
1.00	66.74%	(18,521)	1493.70	5/13/11	221,581
-73.00	66.63%	(8,892)	1492.70	5/6/11	240,102
60.70	74.78%	(17,554)	1565.70	4/29/11	248,994
18.60	68.00%	12,860	1505.00	4/22/11	266,548
11.50	65.92%	(4,977)	1486.40	4/15/11	253,688
46.30	64.64%	17,896	1474.90	4/8/11	258,665
-1.60	59.47%	15,970	1428.60	4/1/11	240,769
10.50	59.65%	4,645	1430.20	3/25/11	224,799
0.20	58.48%	(27,310)	1419.70	3/18/11	220,154
-10.00	58.46%	(3,132)	1419.50	3/11/11	247,464
20.90	59.57%	18,790	1429.50	3/4/11	250,596
19.50	57.24%	13,180	1408.60	2/25/11	231,806
33.20	55.06%	8,715	1389.10	2/18/11	218,626
7.00	51.36%	16,714	1355.90	2/11/11	209,911
11.00	50.58%	(4,286)	1348.90	2/4/11	193,197
-4.00	49.35%	(8,988)	1337.90	1/28/11	197,483
-17.20	49.79%	(18,593)	1341.90	1/21/11	206,471
-10.50	51.71%	(29,518)	1359.10	1/14/11	225,064
-51.60	52.89%	(5,188)	1369.60	1/7/11	254,582
37.20	58.65%	7,962	1421.20	12/31/10	259,770
8.50	54.49%	(16,327)	1384.00	12/24/10	251,808
-11.60	53.54%	(10,538)	1375.50	12/17/10	268,135
-21.40	54.84%	8,204	1387.10	12/10/10	278,673
44.50	57.23%	6,576	1408.50	12/3/10	270,469
11.80	52.26%	(1,015)	1364.00	11/26/10	263,893
-16.20	50.94%	(26,045)	1352.20	11/19/10	264,908
-25.80	52.75%	14,341	1368.40	11/12/10	290,953
36.10	55.63%	(5,823)	1394.20	11/5/10	276,612
30.40	51.60%	(10,647)	1358.10	10/29/10	282,435
-39.20	48.21%	(6,940)	1327.70	10/22/10	293,082
21.00	52.58%	524	1366.90	10/15/10	300,022
28.50	50.24%	(3,242)	1345.90	10/8/10	299,498
20.40	47.06%	10,432	1317.40	10/1/10	302,740
22.70	44.78%	(631)	1297.00	9/24/10	292,308
27.60	42.25%	5,259	1274.30	9/17/10	292,939
-1.00	39.17%	3,119	1246.70	9/10/10	287,680
11.80	39.28%	20,261	1247.70	9/3/10	284,561
8.40	37.96%	14,730	1235.90	8/27/10	264,300
12.10	37.02%	18,590	1227.50	8/20/10	249,570
7.65	35.67%	8,951	1215.40	8/13/10	230,980
25.65	34.82%	(5,526)	1207.75	8/6/10	222,029
-6.20	31.96%	11,891	1182.10	7/30/10	227,555
-2.50	32.65%	(32,684)	1188.30	7/23/10	215,664
-18.80	32.93%	(794)	1190.80	7/16/10	248,348
-2.10	35.03%	(40,814)	1209.60	7/9/10	249,142
-42.70	35.26%	1,040	1211.70	7/2/10	289,956
-2.60	40.03%	9,972	1254.40	6/25/10	288,916
30.10	40.32%	5,367	1257.00	6/18/10	278,944
9.50	36.96%	5,954	1226.90	6/11/10	273,577
1.40	35.90%	(756)	1217.40	6/4/10	267,623
39.00	35.74%	(11,365)	1216.00	5/28/10	268,379
-57.80	31.39%	(2,900)	1177.00	5/21/10	279,744
25.60	37.84%	11,058	1234.80	5/14/10	282,644
30.90	34.98%	6,064	1209.20	5/7/10	271,586
23.10	31.53%	8,126	1178.30	4/30/10	265,522
19.70	28.95%	(6,088)	1155.20	4/23/10	257,396
-25.50	26.75%	18,578	1135.50	4/16/10	263,484
34.00	29.60%	37,215	1161.00	4/9/10	244,906
19.20	25.80%	(16,132)	1127.00	4/2/10	207,691
1.20	23.66%	(18,472)	1107.80	3/26/10	223,823
4.00	23.53%	(9,492)	1106.60	3/19/10	242,295
-29.40	23.08%	250	1102.60	3/12/10	251,787
15.30	26.36%	13,493	1132.00	3/5/10	251,537
-1.00	24.65%	18,166	1116.70	2/26/10	238,044
26.50	24.77%	6,451	1117.70	2/19/10	219,878
25.90	21.81%	(31,152)	1091.20	2/12/10	213,427
-15.30	18.92%	(4,039)	1065.30	2/5/10	244,579
-11.70	20.63%	(25,029)	1080.60	1/29/10	248,618
-38.10	21.93%	(8,841)	1092.30	1/22/10	273,647
-6.20	26.18%	3,937	1130.40	1/15/10	282,488
41.60	26.88%	(391)	1136.60	1/8/10	278,551
-9.50	22.23%	(6,723)	1095.00	1/1/10	278,942
-8.00	23.29%	(18,126)	1104.50	12/25/09	285,665
-2.50	24.19%	4,605	1112.50	12/18/09	303,791
-46.40	24.47%	(9,045)	1115.00	12/11/09	299,186
-5.10	29.64%	2,127	1161.40	12/4/09	308,231
16.40	30.21%	24,558	1166.50	11/27/09	306,104
31.60	28.38%	(1,238)	1150.10	11/20/09	281,546
21.50	24.86%	(1,068)	1118.50	11/13/09	282,784
50.90	22.46%	373	1097.00	11/6/09	283,852
-8.60	16.77%	(14,014)	1046.10	10/30/09	283,479
1.80	17.73%	1,567	1054.70	10/23/09	297,493
4.90	17.53%	14,062	1052.90	10/16/09	295,926
44.00	16.99%	6,630	1048.00	10/9/09	281,864
13.30	12.07%	(12,376)	1004.00	10/2/09	275,234
-15.30	10.59%	2,949	990.70	9/25/09	287,610
0.30	12.30%	13,864	1006.00	9/18/09	284,661
11.60	12.26%	54,089	1005.70	9/11/09	270,797
38.00	10.97%	5,366	994.10	9/4/09	216,708
2.20	6.73%	6,797	956.10	8/28/09	211,342
0.30	6.48%	(18,360)	953.90	8/21/09	204,545
-2.40	6.45%	(5,288)	953.60	8/14/09	222,905
2.80	6.72%	25,672	956.00	8/7/09	228,193
0.90	6.40%	(1,705)	953.20	7/31/09	202,521
16.60	6.30%	21,939	952.30	7/24/09	204,226
24.00	4.45%	(9,020)	935.70	7/17/09	182,287
-20.80	1.77%	(6,511)	911.70	7/10/09	191,307
-6.10	4.09%	3,388	932.50	7/3/09	197,818
4.90	4.77%	(12,938)	938.60	6/26/09	194,430
-5.10	4.23%	(17,679)	933.70	6/19/09	207,368
-15.50	4.80%	(1,474)	938.80	6/12/09	225,047
-24.80	6.53%	18,385	954.30	6/5/09	226,521
22.40	9.29%	25,071	979.10	5/29/09	208,136
25.50	6.79%	11,885	956.70	5/22/09	183,065
16.70	3.95%	10,735	931.20	5/15/09	171,180
29.20	2.08%	7,026	914.50	5/8/09	160,445
-27.40	-1.18%	3,811	885.30	5/1/09	153,419
45.90	1.88%	(3,901)	912.70	4/24/09	149,608
-13.20	-3.24%	286	866.80	4/17/09	153,509
-14.30	-1.77%	(28,703)	880.00	4/10/09	153,223
-28.70	-0.17%	637	894.30	4/3/09	181,926
-29.60	3.03%	5,605	923.00	3/27/09	181,289
24.50	6.34%	2,833	952.60	3/20/09	175,684
-10.30	3.60%	(15,550)	928.10	3/13/09	172,851
-3.80	4.75%	(2,535)	938.40	3/6/09	188,401
-52.50	5.18%	(5,424)	942.20	2/27/09	190,936
53.60	11.04%	7,648	994.70	2/20/09	196,360
30.10	5.05%	11,123	941.10	2/13/09	188,712
-15.10	1.69%	19,213	911.00	2/6/09	177,589
30.90	3.38%	19,445	926.10	1/30/09	158,376
54.20	-0.07%	(2,632)	895.20	1/23/09	138,931

Closer to a bottom?  Commercials, the ones who tend to "know," are curtailing their sales here.  Doesn't mean we can't go lower here.  We can.  Still........this indicator has proven rather uncanny in times past.