Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Saturday, December 7, 2013
Marc Faber: World Bankers Are Going To Bankrupt The World: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF), iShares Silver Trust (ETF)(NYSEARCA:SLV) | ETF DAILY NEWS
Doesn't seem like any harm can come to world stock markets which climb steadily upward, but here is a voice of caution.
Marc Faber: World Bankers Are Going To Bankrupt The World
In 2008, markets were shorn of 50% in summary fashion the same way a new Marine gets a haircut. Could it happen again? Doesn't seem like it now.....
Marc Faber: World Bankers Are Going To Bankrupt The World
In 2008, markets were shorn of 50% in summary fashion the same way a new Marine gets a haircut. Could it happen again? Doesn't seem like it now.....
Friday, November 1, 2013
New term: Global Currency Reset
Google it, and read some of the plethora of features on this.
Crying 'Wolf,' or impending reality? You decide.
Crying 'Wolf,' or impending reality? You decide.
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Book Review: How to Win at Spread Betting, Patel and Kiri
This book is not unlike trading itself, having to deal with a considerable amount of information, some of which is not clearly sourced (e.g. what is their data source, we wrote the publisher, did not receive a final answer), some of which is contradictory, some of which is insightful -- from authors Alpesh Patel and Paresh Kiri.
Best we can tell this is their first publication.
This is more a green gold field than a working mine, no Holy Grail here, just a lot of questions you have posed to yourself and fairly pedestrian answers. Maybe we're just not "getting it."
For example, here are the questions the authors pose, and to the best I could determine, the answers offered up to the reader:
Best we can tell this is their first publication.
This is more a green gold field than a working mine, no Holy Grail here, just a lot of questions you have posed to yourself and fairly pedestrian answers. Maybe we're just not "getting it."
For example, here are the questions the authors pose, and to the best I could determine, the answers offered up to the reader:
-
Which clients win and lose? What are their
characteristics?
-
The majority of spread bettors lose. No number given. Many winners become losers over time.
-
- Which markets are the easiest to make money on?
- Which markets are the easiest to make money on?
-
No difference.
-
- Which markets should retail investors avoid?
- Which markets should retail investors avoid?
-
Winning traders focus on no more than 4 markets.
-
- Do investors make more money in volatile markets or quiet markets?
- Do investors make more money in volatile markets or quiet markets?
-
In the middle
-
- Which is more profitable: to go long or to go short?
- Which is more profitable: to go long or to go short?
-
Same
-
- Do short-term/day traders make more money than long-term traders?
- Do short-term/day traders make more money than long-term traders?
-
Short term, i.e. < 4 months.
-
- What are the most common mistakes made by losing clients?
- What are the most common mistakes made by losing clients?
-
Let big losers run.
Winners have many small losses, few big.
-
- How much do the top spread betters actually make?
- How much do the top spread betters actually make?
Doesn't say.
-
- Which trading systems work best?
- Which trading systems work best?
-
Mean reversion or breakout -- is this their Big Idea? Fade or go long? If so, this is not groundbreaking information, traders have been all over this turf for generations.
-
- Do technical analyst traders outperform fundamental analysis traders?
- Do technical analyst traders outperform fundamental analysis traders?
-
No decision given.
-
- How long are the most profitable positions held?
- How long are the most profitable positions held?
-
Tradeoff, but winners cut losers quickly, hold winners
longer.
-
- What impact do dealing costs have on your ability to beat the market?
- What impact do dealing costs have on your ability to beat the market?
-
No answer.
-
- What rules do profitable traders use for setting trade size and stop losses? 2% on the stop.
- What rules do profitable traders use for setting trade size and stop losses? 2% on the stop.
-
- What do winners do differently from losing spread betting traders?
- What do winners do differently from losing spread betting traders?
-
Cut losers quickly.
-
- What size accounts do the most profitable traders have?
- What size accounts do the most profitable traders have?
-
Enough size to be able to lose 2% per losing trade and
keep going. No actual size given.
-
- How many spread betters win and how many lose?
- How many spread betters win and how many lose?
-
“Majority” loses.
-
- Do losers become winners and winners become losers over time?
- Do losers become winners and winners become losers over time?
-
The latter is true, the former wasn’t answered.
-
- Do winners mimic what big winners like George Soros do?
- Do winners mimic what big winners like George Soros do?
-
No
The rest of the book is street smart observations, and
perhaps this is equal or surpassing the aforegoing in value.
As for the first line of the book: "We believe that no other book has ever provided the kind of essential hard information traders need to win in spread betting as we do in this book," we did not find the bold claim to be fulfilled in its svelte 115 pages. Perhaps you will. For us, it was "nothing new under the sun."
A Kindle version is available for a fraction of the cost of the hard copy.
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
How's the Economy REALLY doing? The Real Deal from Shadowstats
Commentaries by Date
• At An 18-Year Low, 2012 Real Median Household Income Was Below Levels Seen in 1968 through 1974
• 2012 Income Variance Hit Record High,Suggestive of Greater Financial and Economic Crises Ahead
• Systemic Instabilities That Led to 2008 Crisis Still Have to Be Worked Through
• Housing Starts Continued in Renewed Downturn or Stagnation
Made all the more poignant, and credible, by today's Fed decision to scotch tapering....
• At An 18-Year Low, 2012 Real Median Household Income Was Below Levels Seen in 1968 through 1974
• 2012 Income Variance Hit Record High,Suggestive of Greater Financial and Economic Crises Ahead
• Systemic Instabilities That Led to 2008 Crisis Still Have to Be Worked Through
• Housing Starts Continued in Renewed Downturn or Stagnation
Made all the more poignant, and credible, by today's Fed decision to scotch tapering....
Friday, August 2, 2013
Research underway: weekly options
Am researching a feature on weekly options; if you have comments, insights, trading tips, I'd love to receive them. Can credit you or leave it anon. If you would, please, write me via http://option-wizard.com. Thanks in advance.
Monday, July 1, 2013
Monday, June 3, 2013
Commercials continue refraining from shorting gold
DATE vs
Comm_Positions_Short_All minus Comm_Positions_Long_All
Commercials are the least short now that we have seen in recent times. Many say this is setting up a powerful rally. There are reports in the media of moguls getting long millions of calls on mining shares. Others say gold is heading to $1000. How will this resolve?
Comm_Positions_Short_All minus Comm_Positions_Long_All
5/31/13 | 59,221 |
5/24/13 | 84,122 |
5/17/13 | 84,146 |
5/10/13 | 87,719 |
5/3/13 | 95,563 |
4/26/13 | 104,388 |
4/19/13 | 141,929 |
4/12/13 | 143,802 |
4/5/13 | 142,522 |
3/29/13 | 158,473 |
3/22/13 | 162,364 |
3/15/13 | 142,121 |
3/8/13 | 133,798 |
3/1/13 | 137,620 |
2/22/13 | 132,082 |
2/15/13 | 160,653 |
2/8/13 | 174,607 |
2/1/13 | 167,097 |
1/25/13 | 195,950 |
1/18/13 | 185,113 |
1/11/13 | 178,472 |
1/4/13 | 188,659 |
Commercials are the least short now that we have seen in recent times. Many say this is setting up a powerful rally. There are reports in the media of moguls getting long millions of calls on mining shares. Others say gold is heading to $1000. How will this resolve?
Monday, May 13, 2013
Monday, May 6, 2013
Bullish COT data sets stage for higher gold
Each Friday, we put Commitment of
Traders (COT) data under the microscope.
Specifically gold. Most weeks
it’s pretty ho-hum. This past week -- Friday May 4, 2013 --- anything bu
We did a double take:
Net commercial shorts minus net
commercial longs was in five figures. In
the raw data, http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm,
it’s listed as Comm_Positions_Short_All minus Comm_Positions_Long_All. “Comm” stands for commercials, i.e.
producers, the ABXs, GGs, NEMs, et al.
Gold price
|
COT report date
|
Comm_Positions_Short_All
minus Comm_Positions_Long_All
|
1470.70
|
5/3/13
|
95,563
|
1471.50
|
4/26/13
|
104,388
|
1405.50
|
4/19/13
|
141,929
|
1487.70
|
4/12/13
|
143,802
|
1578.30
|
4/5/13
|
142,522
|
1598.25
|
3/29/13
|
158,473
|
1607.90
|
3/22/13
|
162,364
|
1592.90
|
3/15/13
|
142,121
|
1579.20
|
3/8/13
|
133,798
|
1576.30
|
3/1/13
|
137,620
|
1581.50
|
2/22/13
|
132,082
|
1607.00
|
2/15/13
|
160,653
|
1669.00
|
2/8/13
|
174,607
|
1668.10
|
2/1/13
|
167,097
|
1659.30
|
1/25/13
|
195,950
|
1685.00
|
1/18/13
|
185,113
|
1663.30
|
1/11/13
|
178,472
|
1656.80
|
1/4/13
|
188,659
|
1657.50
|
12/28/12
|
187,664
|
1655.50
|
12/21/12
|
202,134
|
1696.20
|
12/14/12
|
214,880
|
1704.50
|
12/7/12
|
217,596
|
1715.00
|
11/30/12
|
252,047
|
1752.00
|
11/23/12
|
236,064
|
1712.90
|
11/16/12
|
224,795
|
1730.80
|
11/9/12
|
207,742
|
1676.90
|
11/2/12
|
222,764
|
1712.10
|
10/26/12
|
232,665
|
1720.50
|
10/19/12
|
247,383
|
1755.80
|
10/12/12
|
266,988
|
1778.40
|
10/5/12
|
269,270
|
How long had that been? We went looking and found it: Dec.
12, 2008 (See below). Four
and one-half years ago.
1161.40
|
12/4/09
|
308,231
|
1166.50
|
11/27/09
|
306,104
|
1150.10
|
11/20/09
|
281,546
|
1118.50
|
11/13/09
|
282,784
|
1097.00
|
11/6/09
|
283,852
|
1046.10
|
10/30/09
|
283,479
|
1054.70
|
10/23/09
|
297,493
|
1052.90
|
10/16/09
|
295,926
|
1048.00
|
10/9/09
|
281,864
|
1004.00
|
10/2/09
|
275,234
|
990.70
|
9/25/09
|
287,610
|
1006.00
|
9/18/09
|
284,661
|
1005.70
|
9/11/09
|
270,797
|
994.10
|
9/4/09
|
216,708
|
956.10
|
8/28/09
|
211,342
|
953.90
|
8/21/09
|
204,545
|
953.60
|
8/14/09
|
222,905
|
956.00
|
8/7/09
|
228,193
|
953.20
|
7/31/09
|
202,521
|
952.30
|
7/24/09
|
204,226
|
935.70
|
7/17/09
|
182,287
|
911.70
|
7/10/09
|
191,307
|
932.50
|
7/3/09
|
197,818
|
938.60
|
6/26/09
|
194,430
|
933.70
|
6/19/09
|
207,368
|
938.80
|
6/12/09
|
225,047
|
954.30
|
6/5/09
|
226,521
|
979.10
|
5/29/09
|
208,136
|
956.70
|
5/22/09
|
183,065
|
931.20
|
5/15/09
|
171,180
|
914.50
|
5/8/09
|
160,445
|
885.30
|
5/1/09
|
153,419
|
912.70
|
4/24/09
|
149,608
|
866.80
|
4/17/09
|
153,509
|
880.00
|
4/10/09
|
153,223
|
894.30
|
4/3/09
|
181,926
|
923.00
|
3/27/09
|
181,289
|
952.60
|
3/20/09
|
175,684
|
928.10
|
3/13/09
|
172,851
|
938.40
|
3/6/09
|
188,401
|
942.20
|
2/27/09
|
190,936
|
994.70
|
2/20/09
|
196,360
|
941.10
|
2/13/09
|
188,712
|
911.00
|
2/6/09
|
177,589
|
926.10
|
1/30/09
|
158,376
|
895.20
|
1/23/09
|
138,931
|
841.00
|
1/16/09
|
141,563
|
853.60
|
1/9/09
|
149,482
|
876.80
|
1/2/09
|
142,773
|
877.80
|
12/26/08
|
132,797
|
837.50
|
12/19/08
|
123,111
|
817.00
|
12/12/08
|
94,872
|
Gold was $817 on that fateful
day. One year later, it was $1161. A stunning 42% gain.
What is a 42% boost on $1470?
$2088.
What is the significance of “net
commercial shorts”? This is the hedge
position of the ABXs, GGs, NEMs, et al.
These are the producers, typically the ones who “know” when to sell
short, when to back off and wait for higher prices. They are not always right, and these numbers
are not infalliable, but usually doesn’t pay to bet against them.
So this Friday’s less than 100,000
print.
Could it be telling us that May,
2014 gold may be selling for $2088? Or
thereabouts? Could the recent takedown
in gold prices be the massive head fake so many have written about?
Stay tuned.
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