From Zero Hedge:
The big problem in London is that their derivatives on gold are about 50 to 100-to-1. That’s the amount of derivatives. So if I take out that 1 ounce, the balloon around it -- the derivative -- is getting bigger and bigger and bigger until it’s ready to totally implode.
And that’s what you are seeing now.
So right now, people are going to say: how high can it go? And I’m going to tell you: you are going to go to sleep on Thursday night and gold may be $1,670. And then you wake up the next day and it’s going to be a banking holiday. And gold will be $3,000 bid, no offer. No offer -- and it will be a banking holiday. Because there will be a failure to deliver.
You’ve got to have physical coins or bars. If all you have is a piece of paper -- that’s all it is! It will just blow up in smoke.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Unusual for an Options Mentor to Post His Loser
Don't Bet Against the Straddle | Option Pit
Hats off to Option Pit for being honest. Very refreshing.
Hats off to Option Pit for being honest. Very refreshing.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Update: Option Wizards®: real life success stories from the financial markets
First full-month sales of our new book: surprisingly gratifying. We seem to have struck a nerve.
They say "nothing succeeds like success." We might alter that ever so slightly: 'nothing succeeds like success stories.'
Available from the publisher or Amazon.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
New book gives the step-by-step how to's on delta neutral, income style options trading
Call to your attention our new title, just published: Option Wizards®: real life success stories from the financial markets.We take five top traders, who have been successful over time, and break down their methods step by step. All in one place. Others pay thousands for this information, and find it a bargain. Here it is for you, now for the first-time in handy book form.
Buy direct from publisher or Amazon.
The book also includes book reviews, and other features published by the author for trade publications Technical Analysis Stocks & Commodities, SFO and Futures.
Available for only a relative few days, we are impressed with the initial interest. Appears we have struck a chord.
More information, table of contents, etc. on the web site. Reviewers, and bloggers, please request your review copy. Will be sent immediately.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Follow up, Pfizer
While we're reporting results, give a look to the piece we wrote for Seeking Alpha on Pfizer (PFE). Another success. Most letter writers and pundits want you to think they never have losers, so at this point, I should mention, that is not the case here --- or anywhere else.
Follow up, gold, OWTM gold
Back on Dec. 23, we called your attention to a potential buying situation in gold, based on our reading of commercial net short position. It's something we follow weekly in a spreadsheet we call Option Wizard® Trading Method Gold.
How did it fare?
The week following our post, gold declined from a Friday close of 1605 to 1565, but rebounded from there for the gain we had foreseen, based on past history:
Plus 8% from 1605 to 1737.50, with a $40 drawdown along the way. It's never easy, but tools like this can help put the odds in your favor.
How did it fare?
The week following our post, gold declined from a Friday close of 1605 to 1565, but rebounded from there for the gain we had foreseen, based on past history:
| 1725.40 | 2/3/12 | 209,862 |
| 1737.50 | 1/27/12 | 179,768 |
| 1666.60 | 1/20/12 | 172,976 |
| 1637.20 | 1/13/12 | 166,574 |
| 1616.60 | 1/6/12 | 161,843 |
| 1565.00 | 12/30/11 | 163,932 |
| 1605.00 | 12/23/11 | 164,554 |
Plus 8% from 1605 to 1737.50, with a $40 drawdown along the way. It's never easy, but tools like this can help put the odds in your favor.
Sunday, January 15, 2012
Barrons Roundtable Results 2011
In today's issue, Barrons gave you a ton of data, but no summaries of how their celebrated stock pickers fared. So we did it ourselves and share it with you here:
The publications own picks fared poorly as well, its bull picks losing 6.9%; its bearish picks fell 16.9%, however.
Touchdowns and Fumbles
By ANDREW BARY
Our bullish 2011 stock picks trailed the market, although our bearish calls did well. An A for PriceSmart and Mistras Group. An F for MF Global, RIM, Bank of America.
It wasn't a great year for Barron's bullish stock picks, but our bearish selections handily topped the market.
Shares of the 97 companies we wrote about favorably in 2011 fell, on average, 6.9%, compared with a 2.4% decline in their benchmarks, measured from the Friday before publication through year-end.
The disappointing 2011 showing came after two straight years in which our picks had beaten the market. We have been doing this report card annually since early 2004, with a tally of the prior year's picks and pans in January and a midyear update in July.
Our bullish picks trailed the averages in 2007 and 2008, but topped them each year from 2003 through 2006. For the performance of each of our stock picks and pans from recent years see—2011 Scorecard and 2010 Scorecard.
Our biggest 2011 winners were midsize companies like Price-Smart (ticker: PSMT), a fast-growing warehouse-club operator in the Caribbean and Latin America, and Mistras Group (MG), a provider of sensors to monitor the structural integrity of bridges, nuclear plants and other structures. Another touchdown: International Coal Group, which was acquired by Arch Coal (ACI) a few months after our bullish article ran last February.
We unfortunately had some big—at least 40%—losers, including MF Global, Research In Motion (RIMM), Bank of America (BAC), Nintendo (NTDOY) Juniper Networks (JNPR) and Morgan Stanley (MS). In our worst fumble, we were upbeat on former CEO Jon Corzine's effort to transform MF Global from a money-losing futures broker into a profitable, diversified securities outfit. Some losers have rallied in 2012, although both PriceSmart and Mistras are down from their year-end levels. It's early to judge many of our 2011 picks and pans, since we like to see how they do over 12 to 18 months.
Our bearish picks fell 16.9% on average, versus a 4.5% drop in their benchmarks. Of the 30 companies we panned, 21 declined, many substantially. We were correctly bearish on mortgage insurer PMI Group (PPMIQ), which filed for bankruptcy protection, and First Solar (FSLR), which was stung by a glut of solar panels. We also were skeptical on many hyped initial public offerings of companies with little or no profits, including those of LinkedIn (LNKD), Groupon (GRPN), Zipcar (ZIP) and Dunkin' Brands (DNKN), all of which have dropped.
Our worst bearish call was Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR), which soared after we questioned its growth prospects a year ago. We gave up on that call in a follow-up article in May. If we decide to retract a bullish or bearish call, often by abandoning a loser, we stop the clock at the time the follow-up article appears, not at year-end.
Our tally doesn't include industry articles that deal with many companies. It also doesn't reflect our columnists' picks and pans; they do their own report cards. We try to measure stocks against appropriate benchmarks, using the Standard & Poor's 500 for large-cap companies, the S&P 400 Mid-Cap index for midsize companies, and the Russell 2000 for small stocks.
====================================================================
Some years ago, we did an exhaustive study of Barrons picks. Results were no better than 50-50.
Here are the individual picks from the experts summarized above:
| Fred Hickey's Picks | 9.24% | |
| Bill Gross's Picks | 8.35% | |
| Mario Gabelli's Picks | 6.07% | |
| Abby Joseph Cohen's Picks | -2.68% | |
| Meryl Witmer's Picks | -3.94% | |
| Oscar Schafer's Picks | -6.14% | |
| Felix Zulauf's Picks | -13.28% | |
| Scott Black's Picks | -13.64% | |
| Marc Faber's Picks | -14.26% | |
| Archie MacAllaster's Picks | -27.82% | -5.81% avg |
The publications own picks fared poorly as well, its bull picks losing 6.9%; its bearish picks fell 16.9%, however.
Touchdowns and Fumbles
By ANDREW BARY
Our bullish 2011 stock picks trailed the market, although our bearish calls did well. An A for PriceSmart and Mistras Group. An F for MF Global, RIM, Bank of America.
It wasn't a great year for Barron's bullish stock picks, but our bearish selections handily topped the market.
Shares of the 97 companies we wrote about favorably in 2011 fell, on average, 6.9%, compared with a 2.4% decline in their benchmarks, measured from the Friday before publication through year-end.
The disappointing 2011 showing came after two straight years in which our picks had beaten the market. We have been doing this report card annually since early 2004, with a tally of the prior year's picks and pans in January and a midyear update in July.
Our bullish picks trailed the averages in 2007 and 2008, but topped them each year from 2003 through 2006. For the performance of each of our stock picks and pans from recent years see—2011 Scorecard and 2010 Scorecard.
Our biggest 2011 winners were midsize companies like Price-Smart (ticker: PSMT), a fast-growing warehouse-club operator in the Caribbean and Latin America, and Mistras Group (MG), a provider of sensors to monitor the structural integrity of bridges, nuclear plants and other structures. Another touchdown: International Coal Group, which was acquired by Arch Coal (ACI) a few months after our bullish article ran last February.
We unfortunately had some big—at least 40%—losers, including MF Global, Research In Motion (RIMM), Bank of America (BAC), Nintendo (NTDOY) Juniper Networks (JNPR) and Morgan Stanley (MS). In our worst fumble, we were upbeat on former CEO Jon Corzine's effort to transform MF Global from a money-losing futures broker into a profitable, diversified securities outfit. Some losers have rallied in 2012, although both PriceSmart and Mistras are down from their year-end levels. It's early to judge many of our 2011 picks and pans, since we like to see how they do over 12 to 18 months.
Our bearish picks fell 16.9% on average, versus a 4.5% drop in their benchmarks. Of the 30 companies we panned, 21 declined, many substantially. We were correctly bearish on mortgage insurer PMI Group (PPMIQ), which filed for bankruptcy protection, and First Solar (FSLR), which was stung by a glut of solar panels. We also were skeptical on many hyped initial public offerings of companies with little or no profits, including those of LinkedIn (LNKD), Groupon (GRPN), Zipcar (ZIP) and Dunkin' Brands (DNKN), all of which have dropped.
Our worst bearish call was Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR), which soared after we questioned its growth prospects a year ago. We gave up on that call in a follow-up article in May. If we decide to retract a bullish or bearish call, often by abandoning a loser, we stop the clock at the time the follow-up article appears, not at year-end.
Our tally doesn't include industry articles that deal with many companies. It also doesn't reflect our columnists' picks and pans; they do their own report cards. We try to measure stocks against appropriate benchmarks, using the Standard & Poor's 500 for large-cap companies, the S&P 400 Mid-Cap index for midsize companies, and the Russell 2000 for small stocks.
====================================================================
Some years ago, we did an exhaustive study of Barrons picks. Results were no better than 50-50.
Here are the individual picks from the experts summarized above:
| Scott Black's Picks | ||||
| Company | Ticker | 1/7/11 Price | 12/30/2011 | Change |
| JoS. A. Bank Clothiers | JOSB | $40.49 | $48.76 | 20.40% |
| Aecom Technology | ACM | 26.77 | 20.57 | -23.20% |
| China XD Plastics | CXDC | 5.7 | 5.34 | -6.30% |
| Methanex | MEOH | 29.02 | 22.82 | -21.40% |
| Vale | VALE | 34.98 | 21.45 | -38.70% |
| General Cable | BGC | 33.71 | 25.01 | -25.80% |
| TTM Technologies | TTMI | 14.03 | 10.96 | -21.90% |
| Arrow Electronics | ARW | 34.71 | 37.41 | 7.80% |
| Abby Joseph Cohen's Picks | ||||
| Company | Ticker | 1/7/11 Price | 12/30/2011 | Change |
| General Electric | GE | $18.43 | $17.91 | -2.80% |
| United Parcel Service | UPS | 72.15 | 73.19 | 1.40% |
| ExxonMobil | XOM | 75.59 | 84.76 | 12.10% |
| Roche Holding | RHHBY | 35.32 | 42.55 | 20.50% |
| Procter & Gamble* | PG | 64.5 | 66.71 | 3.40% |
| TRAVEL/LODGING | ||||
| Shangri-La Asia | 0069.Hong Kong | HK$21.60 | HK$ 13.40 | -38.00% |
| InterContinental Hotels | IHG | $20.71 | $17.99 | -13.10% |
| Walt Disney | DIS | 39.45 | 37.5 | -4.90% |
| *Goldman Sachs suspended coverage on 5/19/11, after analyst left firm. | ||||
| Marc Faber's Picks | ||||
| Investment | Ticker | 1/7/11 Price | 12/30/2011 | Change |
| ENERGY | ||||
| Chevron | CVX | $91.19 | 106.4 | 16.70% |
| ExxonMobil | XOM | 75.59 | 84.76 | 12.10% |
| Occidental Petroleum | OXY | 96.19 | 93.7 | -2.60% |
| Chesapeake Energy | CHK | 26.95 | 22.29 | -17.30% |
| SouthGobi Resources | SGQ.Canada | C$13.50 | C$ 6.00 | -55.60% |
| SWISS INSURANCE STOCKS | ||||
| Zurich Financial | ZURN.Switzerland | 248.80CHF | 212.50 CHF | -14.60% |
| Swiss Life | SLHN.Switzerland | 142.7 | 86.4 | -39.50% |
| Swiss Re | SREN.Switzerland | 52.6 | 47.87 | -9.00% |
| GOLD | ||||
| Newmont Mining | NEM | $56.89 | 60.01 | 5.50% |
| Buy: Barrick Gold | ABX | 49.1 | 45.25 | -7.80% |
| Sell: Barrick Gold options* | 4.15 | |||
| ASIAN STOCKS | ||||
| Chang Mai Ram Medical** | CMR.Thailand | 46.00baht | 50.00 baht | 8.70% |
| AEON Thana Sinsap | AEONTS.Thailand | 32.5 | 28.5 | -12.30% |
| MCOT | MCOT.Thailand | 29 | 26.75 | -7.80% |
| Ascott Residence Trust | A68U.Singapore | S$ 1.24 | S$ 0.99 | -20.20% |
| JAPANESE STOCKS | ||||
| Nomura Holdings | NMR | $6.52 | $2.98 | -54.30% |
| NTT DoCoMo | DCM | 17.11 | 18.35 | 7.20% |
| Mizuho Financial | MFG | 3.88 | 2.68 | -30.90% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial | MTU | 5.31 | 4.19 | -21.10% |
| OTHER | ||||
| Market Vectors Gulf States Index | MES | $24.13 | $19.56 | -18.90% |
| Oslo Bors | OSLO.Norway | 77.00NOK | 59.00 NOK | -23.40% |
| *July 2011 50 calls were trading at $4.15 on 1/7/11 and the stock traded at $50.25 on call expiration date. | ||||
| **Removed pick in June; stock was up 41.3% through 6/6/11. | ||||
| Mario Gabelli's Picks | ||||
| Company | Ticker | 1/7/11 Price | 12/30/2011 | Change |
| Genuine Parts | GPC | $50.98 | $61.20 | 20.00% |
| National Fuel Gas | NFG | 68.39 | 55.58 | -18.70% |
| Fortune Brands* | BEAM | 61.47 | 68.26 | 11.00% |
| Sara Lee | SLE | 17.43 | 18.92 | 8.50% |
| Madison Square Garden | MSG | 24.93 | 28.64 | 14.90% |
| Energizer Holdings | ENR | 72.3 | 77.48 | 7.20% |
| Thomas & Betts | TNB | 47.6 | 54.6 | 14.70% |
| Crane | CR | 41.65 | 46.71 | 12.10% |
| Millicom International Cellular** | MIICF | 95.98 | 100.99 | 8.60% |
| U.S. Cellular | USM | 49.52 | 43.63 | -11.90% |
| Brink's | BCO | 26.76 | 26.88 | 0.40% |
| 2011 Roundtable Report Card | ||||
| *Fortune Brands changed its name to Beam in October 2011 and spun off its security business as Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS). Price change reflects a 12/30/11 closing price of $51.23 for BEAM and $17.03 for FBHS. | ||||
| **Price change adjusted to reflect $3 special dividend paid in December 2011 | ||||
| Bill Gross's Picks | ||||
| Ticker | 1/7/11 Price/Yield | 12/30/11 Price/Yield | Total Return | |
| FUND | ||||
| Pimco Corporate Opportunity Fund* | PTY | $17.17/12.0% | $17.37/11.9% | 13.20% |
| Company | ||||
| Annaly Capital Management | NLY | $17.78/14.4% | $15.96/14.2% | 3.50% |
| *Includes special dividend. | ||||
| Fred Hickey's Picks | ||||
| Company | Ticker | 1/7/11 Price | 12/30/2011 | Change |
| Sprott Physical Gold Trust | PHYS | $11.85 | $13.80 | 16.50% |
| Yamana Gold | AUY | 11.86 | 14.69 | 23.90% |
| Newmont Mining | NEM | 56.89 | 60.01 | 5.50% |
| eBay | EBAY | 27.7 | 30.33 | 9.50% |
| Microsoft | MSFT | 28.6 | 25.96 | -9.20% |
| BONDS | 1/7/11 Price/Yield | 12/30/11 Price/Yield | ||
| 2-Yr Canadian Government Bonds | $99.61/1.7% | $100.10/0.95% | ||
| Archie MacAllaster's Picks | ||||
| Company | Ticker | 1/7/11 Price | 12/30/2011 | Change |
| Manulife Financial | MFC | $17.75 | $10.62 | -40.20% |
| Hartford Financial Services Warrants | HIG/WS | 19.11 | 9.14 | -52.20% |
| Wells Fargo | WFC | 31.5 | 27.56 | -12.50% |
| MetLife | MET | 46.07 | 31.18 | -32.30% |
| Delta Air Lines | DAL | 13 | 8.09 | -37.80% |
| Allied World Assurance | AWH | 58.23 | 62.93 | 8.10% |
| Oscar Schafer's Picks | ||||
| Company | Ticker | 1/7/11 Price | 12/30/2011 | Change |
| Sensata Technologies Holding | ST | $30.47 | $26.28 | -13.80% |
| NXP Semiconductors | NXPI | 22.92 | 15.37 | -32.90% |
| Hertz Global Holdings | HTZ | 14.39 | 11.72 | -18.60% |
| Quantum | QTM | 4.3 | 2.4 | -44.20% |
| Mako Surgical | MAKO | 14.1 | 25.21 | 78.80% |
| Meryl Witmer's Picks | ||||
| Company | Ticker | 1/7/11 Price | 12/30/2011 | Change |
| Rockwood Holdings | ROC | $39.67 | $39.37 | -0.80% |
| Tronox | TROX | 94.5 | 120 | 27.00% |
| Six Flags Entertainment | SIX | 28.29 | 41.24 | 45.80% |
| Collective Brands | PSS | 20.94 | 14.37 | -31.40% |
| Spansion | CODE | 20.88 | 8.28 | -60.30% |
| Felix Zulauf's Picks | ||||
| LONG | Ticker | 1/7/11 Price | 12/30/2011 | Change |
| CBOE VIX futures* | $21.00 | $27.15 | 29.30% | |
| iPath DJ-UBS Grains Subindex Total Return ETN | JJG | 51.12 | 45.03 | -11.90% |
| Uranium Participation | U.Canada | C$8.05 | C$ 5.62 | -30.20% |
| SHORT | 1/7/11 Price | 12/30/2011 | ||
| Italian government bond futures** | € 109.10 | € 91.61 | -16.00% | |
| Euro Stoxx Bank Index futures** | 158.9 | 99.2 | -37.60% | |
| *February 2011 contract and February 2012 contract | ||||
| **March 2011 contract and March 2012 contract | ||||
| Sources: Bloomberg, Pimco | ||||
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