Ambush at the COMEX Corral

Have read a number of explanations as to the smackdown in precious metals over recent days. This is one of the most comprehensive:

Ambush at the COMEX Corral

Gold ready to move on down the line?

Option Wizard® Trading Method is saying gold may be ready to move:

8.80	86.21%	(28,853)	1668.10	2/1/13	167,097
-25.70	85.22%	10,837	1659.30	1/25/13	195,950
21.70	88.09%	6,641	1685.00	1/18/13	185,113
6.50	85.67%	(10,187)	1663.30	1/11/13	178,472
-0.70	84.95%	995	1656.80	1/4/13	188,659
2.00	85.02%	(14,470)	1657.50	12/28/12	187,664
-40.70	84.80%	(12,746)	1655.50	12/21/12	202,134
-8.30	89.34%	(2,716)	1696.20	12/14/12	214,880
-10.50	90.27%	(34,451)	1704.50	12/7/12	217,596
-37.00	91.44%	15,983	1715.00	11/30/12	252,047
39.10	95.57%	11,269	1752.00	11/23/12	236,064
-17.90	91.21%	17,053	1712.90	11/16/12	224,795
53.90	93.21%	(15,022)	1730.80	11/9/12	207,742
-35.20	87.19%	(9,901)	1676.90	11/2/12	222,764
-8.40	91.12%	(14,718)	1712.10	10/26/12	232,665
-35.30	92.06%	(19,605)	1720.50	10/19/12	247,383
-22.60	96.00%	(2,282)	1755.80	10/12/12	266,988
7.80	98.52%	6,915	1778.40	10/5/12	269,270
-3.20	97.65%	12,722	1770.60	9/28/12	262,355
2.80	98.01%	12,542	1773.80	9/21/12	249,633
34.50	97.69%	17,705	1771.00	9/14/12	237,091
44.80	93.84%	15,762	1736.50	9/7/12	219,386
21.40	88.84%	32,402	1691.70	8/31/12	203,624
54.50	86.45%	27,282	1670.30	8/24/12	171,222

Most oversold since Aug. 2012. Whereupon the yellow metal jumped $100 in weeks following. Pundits are calling for more than $100 here. (Read Bill Gross' latest essay). Are we near lift-off?

Gold: $2013 in 2013

Tis the season to make forecasts.

Here's ours.  Since the price movement in the precious yellow metal has pretty much lulled everyone to sleep in 2012, look for the unexpected in 2013.

A 21% gain to $2013 -- and beyond.

We'll revisit this page, Lord willing, in exactly 12 months, and see how profound this oracle turns out to be --- or not.

In any case, we wish all our readers the very best, peace, health and prosperity in 2013.

NBR offers opportunity for the patient

 

In our book, Option Wizard® Trading Method, we propose the following:  put fundamentals first to give yourself an edge, then follow with technical analysis for timing purposes, then options analysis.  This sort of approach can do quite well with a mildly undulating stock such as NBR.

With a book value of $20+, NBR trades in a band from about 13 to 16, plus or minus -- thus giving the investor the "margin of safety" that Graham-Dodd-Buffett wisely appropriated for themselves.  With a program of selling puts when the stock declines, even taking delivery, then selling calls as the stock rises, one can do quite well.  How "well" is "well?"  It's not overly difficult to generate 20% or so per year returns, at this rate.  That's 20x what the money markets are paying, without taking an outrageous amount of risk.

Can you lose?  Yes, NBR, like every other stock out there can plummet to levels never dreamed possible.  Could it increase to book value or beyond?  Yes.   Appears one big buyer thinks so, and has put his or her money behind the idea, the real show of faith.

A few days ago, CNBC ran this item (source:  OptionMonster):

Nabors Industries has been holding long-term lows, and one large buyer is positioning for a gradual rebound.

OptionMonster's trade scanners detected the purchase of 5,000 January 2015 20 calls for $1.70 yesterday. The volume dwarfed the strike's open interest of just 53 contracts at the beginning of the day, so this is clearly a new position.

The calls lock in a $20 entry price in the stock in the next 25 months. Those options will increase in value if the shares rise, potentially resulting in significant leverage relative to the underlying shares.

Nabors shares rose 2.9 percent to $14.20 yesterday and has lost 18 percent of its value so far in 2012. The energy driller has managed to stay above its lows from earlier in the year, which could be leading some traders to expect a rally in the belief that it's at support.

Yesterday's call buying dominated option activity the name, which typically sees volume of fewer than 1,200 contracts per session. Calls outnumbered puts by 5 to 1.

—By CNBC Contributor David Russell

That's three years hence for six or so points of move.  Meanwhile, a patient and agnostic posture of selling both puts and calls, either sequentially with overbought/oversold readings, or together, and acquiring stock at lower prices, selling (if called), at higher, may prove profitable.

Many options strategists prefer this approach to "delta-neutral" strategies which are ever-so-appealing on paper and ever-so-difficult to realize profits with in the real world.

MARKET MENTORS

New!   MARKET MENTORS (2012).  Surveys the burgeoning field of market mentors, their methods, strategies, and what their students say. 

 

This is a must read before you plunk down your hard-won cash. This new cottage industry has been taken up by brokers, small companies and one-man shops. 

 

Emphasis on options education, which started some 20 years ago, gained widespread interest some 10 years ago, and grown steadily since then. 

 

This new book surveyed the field initially several years ago, and then again in 2012, to catalog changes. The consummation of hundreds of hours of research, MARKET MENTORS covers some 21 programs whose fees range from free to $25,000, from major brokers and institutions, to one man shops, and all points in between. 

 

Conclusions? As with other professions, there is a vast range of approach from mentor to mentor. While a newcomer to markets and options can benefit from mentoring, the author recommends: study the field, then ask questions. And then be prepared for hard work, lots of it. 

 

Trading is not an easy way to earn money, those who tell you it is should have one mark against them from the outset. This book will put you way ahead of the curve, and save costly errors. More info.  Buy direct ($23.95, includes shipping) from publisher now or Amazon or Kindle ($25.05). 

Top 100, Options, on Amazon

• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #310,917 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • • Today's ranking 
    #95 in Books > Business & Investing > Investing > Options
   

Amazon category best seller

Checking our Amazon page we found that our new title is climbing the best seller charts in its category.

Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #179,040 in Books (See Top 100 in Books) 

#63 in Books > Business & Investing > Investing > Options 

We produced it to make a difference to your finances.  Options trading is a competitive business, much more difficult than some convey.  This volume presents the stories of the 10% (or less) who succeed, and exactly what strategies they use.  Also includes information on other aspects of the options world.  Many pay hundreds or thousands for substantially the same information.  Priced right, you pay just $14.95.

More info. While you're there, give a look also to its companion publications, MARKET MENTORS and Option Wizard Trading Method.  The former surveys some 20 firms who teach options and trading, from one man to large brokerages.  We also give free sources of education.   In depth, it weighs in at 300 pages.  The latter presents a directional approach to options trading:  fundamentals, technical analysis, options analysis.  Highly recommended by some of the top figures in the options world.  More......