http://seekingalpha.com/article/310892-pfizer-an-option-enhanced-approach
We invite you to give it a look.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Pfizer: An Option-Enhanced Approach
We have just contributed our first feature to Seeking Alpha:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/310892-pfizer-an-option-enhanced-approach
We invite you to give it a look.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/310892-pfizer-an-option-enhanced-approach
We invite you to give it a look.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Score one for our COT Tracker: Option Wizard® Trading Method Gold
In our last post, we said:
Short term? OPTION WIZARD TRADING METHOD GOLD is signaling that a short term bottom might be in via a precipitous drop to below 200,000 contracts in commercial net short positions as follows. See below)
Gold was $1624 when we wrote those words. The situation didn't feel bullish, it felt more like everything was going to fall off a cliff, Europe, metals, stocks, bonds.
Le Grande Implosion seemed to be at hand.
Nevertheless, the hard, cold numbers of Option Wizard® Trading Method Gold won the day. Here we were, not even 30 days later, as of Friday, Oct. 28 close: $1,743.40, when these words were written (the market has since backed off).
Plus 7.2%, one month (or so) gain.
Maybe Ms. Gisele Bündchen has changed her payment preferences since her last and famous pronouncement?
Krugerrands.....Maple Leafs anyone....? Gisele, please write, tell me what you're thinking....
Short term? OPTION WIZARD TRADING METHOD GOLD is signaling that a short term bottom might be in via a precipitous drop to below 200,000 contracts in commercial net short positions as follows. See below)
Gold was $1624 when we wrote those words. The situation didn't feel bullish, it felt more like everything was going to fall off a cliff, Europe, metals, stocks, bonds.
Le Grande Implosion seemed to be at hand.
Nevertheless, the hard, cold numbers of Option Wizard® Trading Method Gold won the day. Here we were, not even 30 days later, as of Friday, Oct. 28 close: $1,743.40, when these words were written (the market has since backed off).
Plus 7.2%, one month (or so) gain.
Maybe Ms. Gisele Bündchen has changed her payment preferences since her last and famous pronouncement?Krugerrands.....Maple Leafs anyone....? Gisele, please write, tell me what you're thinking....
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Next for gold
As little as four years ago, there was no financial hand-wringing surrounding Europe. World financial angst was concentrated on the U.S. dollar. Remember when supermodels demanded to be paid not in dollars, but in Euros? Seems like prehistory now....
Now it seems the whole world is watching the Euro's weakest link, Greece. When, not if, it defaults, will it take down Euro banks, governments....? When they fall into the Atlantic, will the ensuing tsunami submerge our own shores...?
Which financial phenomenon will play the role of Grim Financial Reaper, Deflation or Inflation? Or will we continue to soldier on, wobble on, in the uneasy equilibrium beyond these two cosmic forces?
And what of gold?
Of the long term, we confess we don't know, save for the famous words of one noted economist, that in the long term, we'll all dead (fairly obvious, but J. M. Keynes surely got a lot of quotes out of it.)
Short term? OPTION WIZARD TRADING METHOD GOLD is signaling that a short term bottom might be in via a precipitous drop to below 200,000 contracts in commercial net short positions as follows.
It may be instructive to look at what happened the last time commercial net short's declined to this level.
About $150 to the plus for gold, from January to April.
However, having pointed these situations out:
Could gold revisit its recent low? Could it move sideways for an extended time? Yes, and yes. Could it make new low's? Yes, again. With Europe primed and awaiting crisis, anything and everything is possible. But the commercials (producers) tend to have the best handle on the market, and this indicator tends to work over time.
That it doesn't "feel right" after the recent drubbing the shiny metal has taken is perhaps another powerful endorsement. That some of the gold miners turned up or acted firm Friday, when gold itself was struggling, is another positive. Historically, miners have tended to lead the actual metal....
Now it seems the whole world is watching the Euro's weakest link, Greece. When, not if, it defaults, will it take down Euro banks, governments....? When they fall into the Atlantic, will the ensuing tsunami submerge our own shores...?
Which financial phenomenon will play the role of Grim Financial Reaper, Deflation or Inflation? Or will we continue to soldier on, wobble on, in the uneasy equilibrium beyond these two cosmic forces?
And what of gold?
Of the long term, we confess we don't know, save for the famous words of one noted economist, that in the long term, we'll all dead (fairly obvious, but J. M. Keynes surely got a lot of quotes out of it.)
Short term? OPTION WIZARD TRADING METHOD GOLD is signaling that a short term bottom might be in via a precipitous drop to below 200,000 contracts in commercial net short positions as follows.
| Gold | Change | Date | COMMERCIALS NET SHORT |
| 1624.80 | -22.20 | 9/30/11 | 166,683 |
| 1647.00 | -162.60 | 9/23/11 | 197,628 |
| 1809.60 | -49.80 | 9/16/11 | 210,468 |
| 1859.40 | -22.50 | 9/9/11 | 227,714 |
| 1881.90 | 68.20 | 9/2/11 | 217,355 |
| 1813.70 | -32.70 | 8/26/11 | 230,436 |
| 1846.40 | 101.20 | 8/19/11 | 248,847 |
| 1745.20 | 86.90 | 8/12/11 | 249,206 |
| 1658.30 | 33.40 | 8/5/11 | 287,634 |
| 1624.90 | 22.50 | 7/29/11 | 282,973 |
| 1602.40 | 8.30 | 7/22/11 | 263,814 |
| 1594.10 | 50.10 | 7/15/11 | 244,249 |
| 1544.00 | 57.70 | 7/8/11 | 202,002 |
| 1486.30 | -13.30 | 7/1/11 | 208,755 |
| 1499.60 | -37.90 | 6/24/11 | 251,247 |
| 1537.50 | 5.00 | 6/17/11 | 237,429 |
| 1532.50 | -9.80 | 6/10/11 | 247,684 |
| 1542.30 | 6.80 | 6/3/11 | 240,508 |
| 1535.50 | 22.00 | 5/27/11 | 217,237 |
| 1513.50 | 19.80 | 5/20/11 | 206,949 |
| 1493.70 | 1.00 | 5/13/11 | 221,581 |
| 1492.70 | -73.00 | 5/6/11 | 240,102 |
| 1565.70 | 60.70 | 4/29/11 | 248,994 |
| 1505.00 | 18.60 | 4/22/11 | 266,548 |
It may be instructive to look at what happened the last time commercial net short's declined to this level.
| Gold | Change | Date | COMMERCIALS NET SHORT |
| 1486.40 | 11.50 | 4/15/11 | 253,688 |
| 1474.90 | 46.30 | 4/8/11 | 258,665 |
| 1428.60 | -1.60 | 4/1/11 | 240,769 |
| 1430.20 | 10.50 | 3/25/11 | 224,799 |
| 1419.70 | 0.20 | 3/18/11 | 220,154 |
| 1419.50 | -10.00 | 3/11/11 | 247,464 |
| 1429.50 | 20.90 | 3/4/11 | 250,596 |
| 1408.60 | 19.50 | 2/25/11 | 231,806 |
| 1389.10 | 33.20 | 2/18/11 | 218,626 |
| 1355.90 | 7.00 | 2/11/11 | 209,911 |
| 1348.90 | 11.00 | 2/4/11 | 193,197 |
| 1337.90 | -4.00 | 1/28/11 | 197,483 |
About $150 to the plus for gold, from January to April.
However, having pointed these situations out:
Could gold revisit its recent low? Could it move sideways for an extended time? Yes, and yes. Could it make new low's? Yes, again. With Europe primed and awaiting crisis, anything and everything is possible. But the commercials (producers) tend to have the best handle on the market, and this indicator tends to work over time.
That it doesn't "feel right" after the recent drubbing the shiny metal has taken is perhaps another powerful endorsement. That some of the gold miners turned up or acted firm Friday, when gold itself was struggling, is another positive. Historically, miners have tended to lead the actual metal....
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
October SFO magazine will include our review of new Excel for options book
Our review of Microsoft Excel for Stock and Option Traders: Build Your Own Analytical Tools for Higher Returns by Jeff Augen is slated for October SFO magazine. (Free subscription)
Monday, August 1, 2011
OWSOSB straddle: + 29% 13 days
Credit: Option Wizard® Simplified Options Strategy (SOS) Backtester.
7/19/2011 11:06:54 BOT SPY 100 AUG 11 133 PUT @3.25 NASDAQ
7/19/2011 11:17:19 BOT SPY 100 AUG 11 133 CALL @1.96 CBOE
8/1/2011 13:00:23 SOLD STRADDLE SPY 100 AUG 11 133 CALL/PUT @6.20
Potential for snapback rally if D.C. avoids ritual suicide....I'm thinking they will....we'll see, in any case, it is the right thing to do and the right time to exit....
7/19/2011 11:06:54 BOT SPY 100 AUG 11 133 PUT @3.25 NASDAQ
7/19/2011 11:17:19 BOT SPY 100 AUG 11 133 CALL @1.96 CBOE
8/1/2011 13:00:23 SOLD STRADDLE SPY 100 AUG 11 133 CALL/PUT @6.20
Potential for snapback rally if D.C. avoids ritual suicide....I'm thinking they will....we'll see, in any case, it is the right thing to do and the right time to exit....
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
SPY from 135 handle to 131 in a heartbeat
Starting from June 28, overbought situation in SPY as "described" by new Option Wizard® Simplified Options Strategy (SOS) Backtester.
The "red lights" were "on":
The "red lights" were "on":
| 94 | 22 | 286 | Tue-28-Jun-11 | 129.61 |
| 96 | 41 | 314 | Wed-29-Jun-11 | 130.72 |
| 96 | 66 | 352 | Thu-30-Jun-11 | 131.97 |
| 98 | 90 | 432 | Fri-1-Jul-11 | 133.92 |
| 95 | 97 | 479 | Tue-5-Jul-11 | 133.81 |
| 96 | 97 | 481 | Wed-6-Jul-11 | 133.97 |
| 93 | 97 | 478 | Thu-7-Jul-11 | 135.36 |
| 67 | 93 | 449 | Fri-8-Jul-11 | 134.4 |
| 8 | 81 | 359 | Mon-11-Jul-11 | 131.97 |
Friday, July 1, 2011
Backtesting Options Strategies
Our feature appears in July issue, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF STOCKS AND COMMODITIES. Page 38-41. Available at newsstands or traders.com.
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