No QE3 until after Nov. 6 now....

Thoughtful analysis by Gary Dortsch. 

Sideways markets in spite of Iran, Syria, Europe, et al?

Gold (still) chops....

Gold still chops, but commercials get "less short" -- is a breakout forthcoming in the fall (when gold is seasonally bullish)?;

39.10	1623.60	7/27/12	136,245
-4.80	1584.50	7/20/12	158,819
1.70	1589.30	7/13/12	152,766
-12.90	1587.60	7/6/12	166,637
27.80	1600.50	6/29/12	144,160

Stay tuned...

Gold chops

"Look for higher prices" we proclaimed in our last post, using Option Wizard® Trading Method Gold as our guide, i.e. COT net short (commercials)..

Mea culpa.  We ekked out a higher price, yes, but the real action was chop.

6/29/12	1600.50	27.80	144,160
6/22/12	1572.70	-54.80	163,691
6/15/12	1627.50	32.70	158,790
6/8/12	1594.80	-26.90	156,122
6/1/12	1621.70	48.70	130,709

Prices tend to move higher in the fall season;  perhaps we have another 60 days of "chop" to go here before the stalemate is broken.  The deflationists, however, it should be pointed out, are predicting lower prices.  Just as vehemently, the gold bulls are talking higher.  Hence, the "chop" goes on.....

COT net commercial shorts down to 130,709; gold explodes to upside

Dramatic gold move today (+$62) presaged by usually reliable COT indicator: comm'l net short recent low of 130,000 (i.e. the major producers dampened their selling as gold drifted into 1500s.  Look for higher prices to follow):

1621.70	48.70	6/1/12	130,709
1573.00	-17.20	5/25/12	135,598
1590.20	10.00	5/18/12	138,917
1580.20	-64.50	5/11/12	151,455
1644.70	-19.10	5/4/12	178,003
1663.80	21.00	4/27/12	167,237
1642.80	-14.40	4/20/12	176,091
1657.20	25.20	4/13/12	171,049
1632.00	-37.20	4/6/12	177,464
1669.20	5.50	3/30/12	185,076
1663.70	4.30	3/23/12	166,138
1659.40	-52.90	3/16/12	191,688
1712.30	-0.20	3/9/12	200,208
1712.50	-58.90	3/2/12	245,351
1771.40	48.30	2/24/12	229,302
1723.10	4.20	2/17/12	209,408
1718.90	-6.50	2/10/12	221,072
1725.40	-12.10	2/3/12	209,862
1737.50	70.90	1/27/12	179,768
1666.60	29.40	1/20/12	172,976
1637.20	20.60	1/13/12	166,574
1616.60	51.60	1/6/12	161,843

Gold advances on central bank buying and margin changes

Gold advances on central bank buying and margin changes

Commercial net short still lower

138,917

Gold $10 + from one week ago.   Gold bottoming here.  Or so it would appear.

What's next for gold? Here's one indicator

Lowest hedge level by commercials since --- gold was $895, 3 and 1/2 years ago.  Column to farthest right is net commercial contracts short:

-64.50	76.39%	(26,548)	1580.20	5/11/12	151,455
-19.10	83.59%	10,766	1644.70	5/4/12	178,003
21.00	85.73%	(8,854)	1663.80	4/27/12	167,237
-14.40	83.38%	5,042	1642.80	4/20/12	176,091
25.20	84.99%	(6,415)	1657.20	4/13/12	171,049
-37.20	82.18%	(7,612)	1632.00	4/6/12	177,464
5.50	86.33%	18,938	1669.20	3/30/12	185,076
4.30	85.72%	(25,550)	1663.70	3/23/12	166,138
-52.90	85.24%	(8,520)	1659.40	3/16/12	191,688
-0.20	91.14%	(45,143)	1712.30	3/9/12	200,208
-58.90	91.16%	16,049	1712.50	3/2/12	245,351
48.30	97.74%	19,894	1771.40	2/24/12	229,302
4.20	92.35%	(11,664)	1723.10	2/17/12	209,408
-6.50	91.88%	11,210	1718.90	2/10/12	221,072
-12.10	92.60%	30,094	1725.40	2/3/12	209,862
70.90	93.95%	6,792	1737.50	1/27/12	179,768
29.40	86.04%	6,402	1666.60	1/20/12	172,976
20.60	82.76%	4,731	1637.20	1/13/12	166,574
51.60	80.46%	(2,089)	1616.60	1/6/12	161,843
-40.00	74.70%	(622)	1565.00	12/30/11	163,932
7.50	79.16%	(21,663)	1605.00	12/23/11	164,554
-117.50	78.33%	(15,283)	1597.50	12/16/11	186,217
-30.30	91.44%	7,955	1715.00	12/9/11	201,500
56.80	94.82%	1,132	1745.30	12/2/11	193,545
-30.50	88.48%	(11,750)	1688.50	11/25/11	192,413
-54.00	91.89%	7,228	1719.00	11/18/11	204,163
24.00	97.92%	14,535	1773.00	11/11/11	196,935
4.60	95.24%	14,286	1749.00	11/4/11	182,400
105.70	94.72%	8,961	1744.40	10/28/11	168,114
-41.30	82.92%	(9,325)	1638.70	10/21/11	159,153
28.00	87.54%	3,727	1680.00	10/14/11	168,478
27.20	84.41%	(1,932)	1652.00	10/7/11	164,751
-22.20	81.37%	(30,945)	1624.80	9/30/11	166,683
-162.60	83.85%	(12,840)	1647.00	9/23/11	197,628
-49.80	102.00%	(17,246)	1809.60	9/16/11	210,468
-22.50	107.56%	10,359	1859.40	9/9/11	227,714
68.20	110.07%	(13,081)	1881.90	9/2/11	217,355
-32.70	102.46%	(18,411)	1813.70	8/26/11	230,436
101.20	106.11%	(359)	1846.40	8/19/11	248,847
86.90	94.81%	(38,428)	1745.20	8/12/11	249,206
33.40	85.11%	4,661	1658.30	8/5/11	287,634
22.50	81.38%	19,159	1624.90	7/29/11	282,973
8.30	78.87%	19,565	1602.40	7/22/11	263,814
50.10	77.95%	42,247	1594.10	7/15/11	244,249
57.70	72.35%	(6,753)	1544.00	7/8/11	202,002
-13.30	65.91%	(42,492)	1486.30	7/1/11	208,755
-37.90	67.40%	13,818	1499.60	6/24/11	251,247
5.00	71.63%	(10,255)	1537.50	6/17/11	237,429
-9.80	71.07%	7,176	1532.50	6/10/11	247,684
6.80	72.16%	23,271	1542.30	6/3/11	240,508
22.00	71.40%	10,288	1535.50	5/27/11	217,237
19.80	68.95%	(14,632)	1513.50	5/20/11	206,949
1.00	66.74%	(18,521)	1493.70	5/13/11	221,581
-73.00	66.63%	(8,892)	1492.70	5/6/11	240,102
60.70	74.78%	(17,554)	1565.70	4/29/11	248,994
18.60	68.00%	12,860	1505.00	4/22/11	266,548
11.50	65.92%	(4,977)	1486.40	4/15/11	253,688
46.30	64.64%	17,896	1474.90	4/8/11	258,665
-1.60	59.47%	15,970	1428.60	4/1/11	240,769
10.50	59.65%	4,645	1430.20	3/25/11	224,799
0.20	58.48%	(27,310)	1419.70	3/18/11	220,154
-10.00	58.46%	(3,132)	1419.50	3/11/11	247,464
20.90	59.57%	18,790	1429.50	3/4/11	250,596
19.50	57.24%	13,180	1408.60	2/25/11	231,806
33.20	55.06%	8,715	1389.10	2/18/11	218,626
7.00	51.36%	16,714	1355.90	2/11/11	209,911
11.00	50.58%	(4,286)	1348.90	2/4/11	193,197
-4.00	49.35%	(8,988)	1337.90	1/28/11	197,483
-17.20	49.79%	(18,593)	1341.90	1/21/11	206,471
-10.50	51.71%	(29,518)	1359.10	1/14/11	225,064
-51.60	52.89%	(5,188)	1369.60	1/7/11	254,582
37.20	58.65%	7,962	1421.20	12/31/10	259,770
8.50	54.49%	(16,327)	1384.00	12/24/10	251,808
-11.60	53.54%	(10,538)	1375.50	12/17/10	268,135
-21.40	54.84%	8,204	1387.10	12/10/10	278,673
44.50	57.23%	6,576	1408.50	12/3/10	270,469
11.80	52.26%	(1,015)	1364.00	11/26/10	263,893
-16.20	50.94%	(26,045)	1352.20	11/19/10	264,908
-25.80	52.75%	14,341	1368.40	11/12/10	290,953
36.10	55.63%	(5,823)	1394.20	11/5/10	276,612
30.40	51.60%	(10,647)	1358.10	10/29/10	282,435
-39.20	48.21%	(6,940)	1327.70	10/22/10	293,082
21.00	52.58%	524	1366.90	10/15/10	300,022
28.50	50.24%	(3,242)	1345.90	10/8/10	299,498
20.40	47.06%	10,432	1317.40	10/1/10	302,740
22.70	44.78%	(631)	1297.00	9/24/10	292,308
27.60	42.25%	5,259	1274.30	9/17/10	292,939
-1.00	39.17%	3,119	1246.70	9/10/10	287,680
11.80	39.28%	20,261	1247.70	9/3/10	284,561
8.40	37.96%	14,730	1235.90	8/27/10	264,300
12.10	37.02%	18,590	1227.50	8/20/10	249,570
7.65	35.67%	8,951	1215.40	8/13/10	230,980
25.65	34.82%	(5,526)	1207.75	8/6/10	222,029
-6.20	31.96%	11,891	1182.10	7/30/10	227,555
-2.50	32.65%	(32,684)	1188.30	7/23/10	215,664
-18.80	32.93%	(794)	1190.80	7/16/10	248,348
-2.10	35.03%	(40,814)	1209.60	7/9/10	249,142
-42.70	35.26%	1,040	1211.70	7/2/10	289,956
-2.60	40.03%	9,972	1254.40	6/25/10	288,916
30.10	40.32%	5,367	1257.00	6/18/10	278,944
9.50	36.96%	5,954	1226.90	6/11/10	273,577
1.40	35.90%	(756)	1217.40	6/4/10	267,623
39.00	35.74%	(11,365)	1216.00	5/28/10	268,379
-57.80	31.39%	(2,900)	1177.00	5/21/10	279,744
25.60	37.84%	11,058	1234.80	5/14/10	282,644
30.90	34.98%	6,064	1209.20	5/7/10	271,586
23.10	31.53%	8,126	1178.30	4/30/10	265,522
19.70	28.95%	(6,088)	1155.20	4/23/10	257,396
-25.50	26.75%	18,578	1135.50	4/16/10	263,484
34.00	29.60%	37,215	1161.00	4/9/10	244,906
19.20	25.80%	(16,132)	1127.00	4/2/10	207,691
1.20	23.66%	(18,472)	1107.80	3/26/10	223,823
4.00	23.53%	(9,492)	1106.60	3/19/10	242,295
-29.40	23.08%	250	1102.60	3/12/10	251,787
15.30	26.36%	13,493	1132.00	3/5/10	251,537
-1.00	24.65%	18,166	1116.70	2/26/10	238,044
26.50	24.77%	6,451	1117.70	2/19/10	219,878
25.90	21.81%	(31,152)	1091.20	2/12/10	213,427
-15.30	18.92%	(4,039)	1065.30	2/5/10	244,579
-11.70	20.63%	(25,029)	1080.60	1/29/10	248,618
-38.10	21.93%	(8,841)	1092.30	1/22/10	273,647
-6.20	26.18%	3,937	1130.40	1/15/10	282,488
41.60	26.88%	(391)	1136.60	1/8/10	278,551
-9.50	22.23%	(6,723)	1095.00	1/1/10	278,942
-8.00	23.29%	(18,126)	1104.50	12/25/09	285,665
-2.50	24.19%	4,605	1112.50	12/18/09	303,791
-46.40	24.47%	(9,045)	1115.00	12/11/09	299,186
-5.10	29.64%	2,127	1161.40	12/4/09	308,231
16.40	30.21%	24,558	1166.50	11/27/09	306,104
31.60	28.38%	(1,238)	1150.10	11/20/09	281,546
21.50	24.86%	(1,068)	1118.50	11/13/09	282,784
50.90	22.46%	373	1097.00	11/6/09	283,852
-8.60	16.77%	(14,014)	1046.10	10/30/09	283,479
1.80	17.73%	1,567	1054.70	10/23/09	297,493
4.90	17.53%	14,062	1052.90	10/16/09	295,926
44.00	16.99%	6,630	1048.00	10/9/09	281,864
13.30	12.07%	(12,376)	1004.00	10/2/09	275,234
-15.30	10.59%	2,949	990.70	9/25/09	287,610
0.30	12.30%	13,864	1006.00	9/18/09	284,661
11.60	12.26%	54,089	1005.70	9/11/09	270,797
38.00	10.97%	5,366	994.10	9/4/09	216,708
2.20	6.73%	6,797	956.10	8/28/09	211,342
0.30	6.48%	(18,360)	953.90	8/21/09	204,545
-2.40	6.45%	(5,288)	953.60	8/14/09	222,905
2.80	6.72%	25,672	956.00	8/7/09	228,193
0.90	6.40%	(1,705)	953.20	7/31/09	202,521
16.60	6.30%	21,939	952.30	7/24/09	204,226
24.00	4.45%	(9,020)	935.70	7/17/09	182,287
-20.80	1.77%	(6,511)	911.70	7/10/09	191,307
-6.10	4.09%	3,388	932.50	7/3/09	197,818
4.90	4.77%	(12,938)	938.60	6/26/09	194,430
-5.10	4.23%	(17,679)	933.70	6/19/09	207,368
-15.50	4.80%	(1,474)	938.80	6/12/09	225,047
-24.80	6.53%	18,385	954.30	6/5/09	226,521
22.40	9.29%	25,071	979.10	5/29/09	208,136
25.50	6.79%	11,885	956.70	5/22/09	183,065
16.70	3.95%	10,735	931.20	5/15/09	171,180
29.20	2.08%	7,026	914.50	5/8/09	160,445
-27.40	-1.18%	3,811	885.30	5/1/09	153,419
45.90	1.88%	(3,901)	912.70	4/24/09	149,608
-13.20	-3.24%	286	866.80	4/17/09	153,509
-14.30	-1.77%	(28,703)	880.00	4/10/09	153,223
-28.70	-0.17%	637	894.30	4/3/09	181,926
-29.60	3.03%	5,605	923.00	3/27/09	181,289
24.50	6.34%	2,833	952.60	3/20/09	175,684
-10.30	3.60%	(15,550)	928.10	3/13/09	172,851
-3.80	4.75%	(2,535)	938.40	3/6/09	188,401
-52.50	5.18%	(5,424)	942.20	2/27/09	190,936
53.60	11.04%	7,648	994.70	2/20/09	196,360
30.10	5.05%	11,123	941.10	2/13/09	188,712
-15.10	1.69%	19,213	911.00	2/6/09	177,589
30.90	3.38%	19,445	926.10	1/30/09	158,376
54.20	-0.07%	(2,632)	895.20	1/23/09	138,931

Closer to a bottom?  Commercials, the ones who tend to "know," are curtailing their sales here.  Doesn't mean we can't go lower here.  We can.  Still........this indicator has proven rather uncanny in times past.