Saturday, March 19, 2011

Option Wizard® Simplified Options Strategy (SOS) Backtester shows that despite earthquakes, tsunami's and nuclear catastrophes, probabilities prevail

On Wed. March 16, 2011, we used the new Option Wizard® Simplified Options Strategy (SOS) Backtester to determine some expiration probabilities for SPY.

Previous close: SPY 128.56 Tues Mar 15, 2011

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SPY CLOSE 2 DAYS LATER:


136 0.79%
134 1.97%
132 6.71%
130 22.11%
128 54.64%
126 11.69%
124 4.11%
122 1.66%
120 0.95%
118 0.63%


So where did it close, Friday, March 18, 2011 -- options expiration?

127.76



Very near our highest probability 128, which Option Wizard® put at 54% probability. Doesn't mean SPY couldn't have closed at 136 or 118, it could have. Theoretically. But where should we put our confidence? Where should we place our positions.

Btw, I mentioned this exercise to a colleague as I was doing it. He is a financial engineer, Chicago firm, fan of fat tails, black swans, and N. Taleb. He scoffed. I understood, he had/has a point.

Still, even in a week (a prior month) of
  • Big moves, bull & bear
  • Aftermath: Earthquake, 5th worst
  • Aftermath: Tsunami
  • Ongoing and raging and worsening nuclear catastrophe
It is perhaps nothing short of amazing that plain, vanilla probabilities --prevailed.

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