Sunday, May 10, 2020

Oil Trader Owes $9 Million After Starting The Day With $77,000

Oil Trader Owes $9 Million After Starting The Day With $77,000

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Expert who called the 2008 crisis says the signal to sell stocks is coming soon - MarketWatch

Expert who called the 2008 crisis says the signal to sell stocks is coming soon - MarketWatch: However, former Goldman Sachs hedge-fund manager Raoul Pal said the dollar was the world’s “biggest problem” and that the signal to sell equities was coming soon.

He said the narrative that the Fed printing money would causes a dollar collapse was “very wrong.”

The chief executive of Global Macro Investor, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, said: “You see the biggest problem the world faces is the dollar. We are in a vicious doom loop where slowing growth causes the dollar to rise, which causes slower growth, which causes the dollar to rise, as all borrowers play musical chairs to get access to the dollar to service debts.

“Dollar swap lines, QE, jawboning, etc. have done nothing to stop this,” he added in a post on Twitter.

He said no printing of money — by the Federal Reserve — would solve what he described as a “structural” problem. “All attempts to create more money to solve the dollar standard issue tend to devalue all fiat versus gold. Gold is rallying on debt deflation probabilities.”

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Risks of Legging In

Tom writes:

I was trading Iron Condors in the EUR/USD in 2008.

I had just started a new position and I got the calls on and the short puts, but the long puts didn't fill. It was the end of the day so I figured I would get them filled in the morning.

BAD DECISION

If you weren't following that currency pair, you might not be aware that the EUR/USD moved down seven standard deviations in a single day.

Because my long puts were not in place yet, I had a terrible loss.

I considered this a great learning opportunity. Here are a few lessons:
  • I vowed never to partially fill a defined-risk trade without the long puts in place again.
  • If I trade at the end of the session, I make sure I have no unintended short options.
  • I am more aware of the true risk I am taking. I don't over leverage SPAN margin.
  • I learned the value of having a portfolio hedge in place
See aeromir.com for more.

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Bill Ackman Buys SBUX, LOW, HLT, BRK in $2.5 Billion Recovery Bet - Bloomberg

Bill Ackman Buys SBUX, LOW, HLT, BRK in $2.5 Billion Recovery Bet - Bloomberg: Activist investor Bill Ackman said he has made a “recovery bet” on the economy, investing $2.5 billion in equities, including upping his positions in several of his portfolio companies and reinvesting in others like Starbucks Corp.

Sunday, March 22, 2020

The Thinking on Closing the Markets

Coronavirus News: Philippines Is First Country to Shut Markets - Bloomberg: The Philippine stock exchange chief said he plans to reopen the $188 billion market on Thursday, seeking a quick resumption of trading after the country became the first to shut financial markets in response to the widening coronavirus pandemic.



We spoke to a savvy market veteran at TDAmeritrade last week, and he said he thought it was considered here, but that U.S. officials did not want to allow other markets to dictate our prices.  So the concept of market close in a nutshell:  either everyone stays open or everyone closes.  Since other markets wished to remain open, so did the U.S.