Friday, May 25, 2012

Gold advances on central bank buying and margin changes

Gold advances on central bank buying and margin changes

Friday, May 18, 2012

Commercial net short still lower


                138,917


Gold $10 + from one week ago.
 
Gold bottoming here.  Or so it would appear.

Friday, May 11, 2012

What's next for gold? Here's one indicator

Lowest hedge level by commercials since --- gold was $895, 3 and 1/2 years ago.  Column to farthest right is net commercial contracts short:


-64.50 76.39%       (26,548) 1580.20 5/11/12                 151,455
-19.10 83.59%        10,766 1644.70 5/4/12                 178,003
21.00 85.73%         (8,854) 1663.80 4/27/12                 167,237
-14.40 83.38%          5,042 1642.80 4/20/12                 176,091
25.20 84.99%         (6,415) 1657.20 4/13/12                 171,049
-37.20 82.18%         (7,612) 1632.00 4/6/12                 177,464
5.50 86.33%        18,938 1669.20 3/30/12                 185,076
4.30 85.72%       (25,550) 1663.70 3/23/12                 166,138
-52.90 85.24%         (8,520) 1659.40 3/16/12                 191,688
-0.20 91.14%       (45,143) 1712.30 3/9/12                 200,208
-58.90 91.16%        16,049 1712.50 3/2/12                 245,351
48.30 97.74%        19,894 1771.40 2/24/12                 229,302
4.20 92.35%       (11,664) 1723.10 2/17/12                 209,408
-6.50 91.88%        11,210 1718.90 2/10/12                 221,072
-12.10 92.60%        30,094 1725.40 2/3/12                 209,862
70.90 93.95%          6,792 1737.50 1/27/12                 179,768
29.40 86.04%          6,402 1666.60 1/20/12                 172,976
20.60 82.76%          4,731 1637.20 1/13/12                 166,574
51.60 80.46%         (2,089) 1616.60 1/6/12                 161,843
-40.00 74.70%            (622) 1565.00 12/30/11                 163,932
7.50 79.16%       (21,663) 1605.00 12/23/11                 164,554
-117.50 78.33%       (15,283) 1597.50 12/16/11                 186,217
-30.30 91.44%          7,955 1715.00 12/9/11                 201,500
56.80 94.82%          1,132 1745.30 12/2/11                 193,545
-30.50 88.48%       (11,750) 1688.50 11/25/11                 192,413
-54.00 91.89%          7,228 1719.00 11/18/11                 204,163
24.00 97.92%        14,535 1773.00 11/11/11                 196,935
4.60 95.24%        14,286 1749.00 11/4/11                 182,400
105.70 94.72%          8,961 1744.40 10/28/11                 168,114
-41.30 82.92%         (9,325) 1638.70 10/21/11                 159,153
28.00 87.54%          3,727 1680.00 10/14/11                 168,478
27.20 84.41%         (1,932) 1652.00 10/7/11                 164,751
-22.20 81.37%       (30,945) 1624.80 9/30/11                 166,683
-162.60 83.85%       (12,840) 1647.00 9/23/11                 197,628
-49.80 102.00%       (17,246) 1809.60 9/16/11                 210,468
-22.50 107.56%        10,359 1859.40 9/9/11                 227,714
68.20 110.07%       (13,081) 1881.90 9/2/11                 217,355
-32.70 102.46%       (18,411) 1813.70 8/26/11                 230,436
101.20 106.11%            (359) 1846.40 8/19/11                 248,847
86.90 94.81%       (38,428) 1745.20 8/12/11                 249,206
33.40 85.11%          4,661 1658.30 8/5/11                 287,634
22.50 81.38%        19,159 1624.90 7/29/11                 282,973
8.30 78.87%        19,565 1602.40 7/22/11                 263,814
50.10 77.95%        42,247 1594.10 7/15/11                 244,249
57.70 72.35%         (6,753) 1544.00 7/8/11                 202,002
-13.30 65.91%       (42,492) 1486.30 7/1/11                 208,755
-37.90 67.40%        13,818 1499.60 6/24/11                 251,247
5.00 71.63%       (10,255) 1537.50 6/17/11                 237,429
-9.80 71.07%          7,176 1532.50 6/10/11                 247,684
6.80 72.16%        23,271 1542.30 6/3/11                 240,508
22.00 71.40%        10,288 1535.50 5/27/11                 217,237
19.80 68.95%       (14,632) 1513.50 5/20/11                 206,949
1.00 66.74%       (18,521) 1493.70 5/13/11                 221,581
-73.00 66.63%         (8,892) 1492.70 5/6/11                 240,102
60.70 74.78%       (17,554) 1565.70 4/29/11                 248,994
18.60 68.00%        12,860 1505.00 4/22/11                 266,548
11.50 65.92%         (4,977) 1486.40 4/15/11                 253,688
46.30 64.64%        17,896 1474.90 4/8/11                 258,665
-1.60 59.47%        15,970 1428.60 4/1/11                 240,769
10.50 59.65%          4,645 1430.20 3/25/11                 224,799
0.20 58.48%       (27,310) 1419.70 3/18/11                 220,154
-10.00 58.46%         (3,132) 1419.50 3/11/11                 247,464
20.90 59.57%        18,790 1429.50 3/4/11                 250,596
19.50 57.24%        13,180 1408.60 2/25/11                 231,806
33.20 55.06%          8,715 1389.10 2/18/11                 218,626
7.00 51.36%        16,714 1355.90 2/11/11                 209,911
11.00 50.58%         (4,286) 1348.90 2/4/11                 193,197
-4.00 49.35%         (8,988) 1337.90 1/28/11                 197,483
-17.20 49.79%       (18,593) 1341.90 1/21/11                 206,471
-10.50 51.71%       (29,518) 1359.10 1/14/11                 225,064
-51.60 52.89%         (5,188) 1369.60 1/7/11                 254,582
37.20 58.65%          7,962 1421.20 12/31/10                 259,770
8.50 54.49%       (16,327) 1384.00 12/24/10                 251,808
-11.60 53.54%       (10,538) 1375.50 12/17/10                 268,135
-21.40 54.84%          8,204 1387.10 12/10/10                 278,673
44.50 57.23%          6,576 1408.50 12/3/10                 270,469
11.80 52.26%         (1,015) 1364.00 11/26/10                 263,893
-16.20 50.94%       (26,045) 1352.20 11/19/10                 264,908
-25.80 52.75%        14,341 1368.40 11/12/10                 290,953
36.10 55.63%         (5,823) 1394.20 11/5/10                 276,612
30.40 51.60%       (10,647) 1358.10 10/29/10                 282,435
-39.20 48.21%         (6,940) 1327.70 10/22/10                 293,082
21.00 52.58%             524 1366.90 10/15/10                 300,022
28.50 50.24%         (3,242) 1345.90 10/8/10                 299,498
20.40 47.06%        10,432 1317.40 10/1/10                 302,740
22.70 44.78%            (631) 1297.00 9/24/10                 292,308
27.60 42.25%          5,259 1274.30 9/17/10                 292,939
-1.00 39.17%          3,119 1246.70 9/10/10                 287,680
11.80 39.28%        20,261 1247.70 9/3/10                 284,561
8.40 37.96%        14,730 1235.90 8/27/10                 264,300
12.10 37.02%        18,590 1227.50 8/20/10                 249,570
7.65 35.67%          8,951 1215.40 8/13/10                 230,980
25.65 34.82%         (5,526) 1207.75 8/6/10                 222,029
-6.20 31.96%        11,891 1182.10 7/30/10                 227,555
-2.50 32.65%       (32,684) 1188.30 7/23/10                 215,664
-18.80 32.93%            (794) 1190.80 7/16/10                 248,348
-2.10 35.03%       (40,814) 1209.60 7/9/10                 249,142
-42.70 35.26%          1,040 1211.70 7/2/10                 289,956
-2.60 40.03%          9,972 1254.40 6/25/10                 288,916
30.10 40.32%          5,367 1257.00 6/18/10                 278,944
9.50 36.96%          5,954 1226.90 6/11/10                 273,577
1.40 35.90%            (756) 1217.40 6/4/10                 267,623
39.00 35.74%       (11,365) 1216.00 5/28/10                 268,379
-57.80 31.39%         (2,900) 1177.00 5/21/10                 279,744
25.60 37.84%        11,058 1234.80 5/14/10                 282,644
30.90 34.98%          6,064 1209.20 5/7/10                 271,586
23.10 31.53%          8,126 1178.30 4/30/10                 265,522
19.70 28.95%         (6,088) 1155.20 4/23/10                 257,396
-25.50 26.75%        18,578 1135.50 4/16/10                 263,484
34.00 29.60%        37,215 1161.00 4/9/10                 244,906
19.20 25.80%       (16,132) 1127.00 4/2/10                 207,691
1.20 23.66%       (18,472) 1107.80 3/26/10                 223,823
4.00 23.53%         (9,492) 1106.60 3/19/10                 242,295
-29.40 23.08%             250 1102.60 3/12/10                 251,787
15.30 26.36%        13,493 1132.00 3/5/10                 251,537
-1.00 24.65%        18,166 1116.70 2/26/10                 238,044
26.50 24.77%          6,451 1117.70 2/19/10                 219,878
25.90 21.81%       (31,152) 1091.20 2/12/10                 213,427
-15.30 18.92%         (4,039) 1065.30 2/5/10                 244,579
-11.70 20.63%       (25,029) 1080.60 1/29/10                 248,618
-38.10 21.93%         (8,841) 1092.30 1/22/10                 273,647
-6.20 26.18%          3,937 1130.40 1/15/10                 282,488
41.60 26.88%            (391) 1136.60 1/8/10                 278,551
-9.50 22.23%         (6,723) 1095.00 1/1/10                 278,942
-8.00 23.29%       (18,126) 1104.50 12/25/09                 285,665
-2.50 24.19%          4,605 1112.50 12/18/09                 303,791
-46.40 24.47%         (9,045) 1115.00 12/11/09                 299,186
-5.10 29.64%          2,127 1161.40 12/4/09                 308,231
16.40 30.21%        24,558 1166.50 11/27/09                 306,104
31.60 28.38%         (1,238) 1150.10 11/20/09                 281,546
21.50 24.86%         (1,068) 1118.50 11/13/09                 282,784
50.90 22.46%             373 1097.00 11/6/09                 283,852
-8.60 16.77%       (14,014) 1046.10 10/30/09                 283,479
1.80 17.73%          1,567 1054.70 10/23/09                 297,493
4.90 17.53%        14,062 1052.90 10/16/09                 295,926
44.00 16.99%          6,630 1048.00 10/9/09                 281,864
13.30 12.07%       (12,376) 1004.00 10/2/09                 275,234
-15.30 10.59%          2,949 990.70 9/25/09                 287,610
0.30 12.30%        13,864 1006.00 9/18/09                 284,661
11.60 12.26%        54,089 1005.70 9/11/09                 270,797
38.00 10.97%          5,366 994.10 9/4/09                 216,708
2.20 6.73%          6,797 956.10 8/28/09                 211,342
0.30 6.48%       (18,360) 953.90 8/21/09                 204,545
-2.40 6.45%         (5,288) 953.60 8/14/09                 222,905
2.80 6.72%        25,672 956.00 8/7/09                 228,193
0.90 6.40%         (1,705) 953.20 7/31/09                 202,521
16.60 6.30%        21,939 952.30 7/24/09                 204,226
24.00 4.45%         (9,020) 935.70 7/17/09                 182,287
-20.80 1.77%         (6,511) 911.70 7/10/09                 191,307
-6.10 4.09%          3,388 932.50 7/3/09                 197,818
4.90 4.77%       (12,938) 938.60 6/26/09                 194,430
-5.10 4.23%       (17,679) 933.70 6/19/09                 207,368
-15.50 4.80%         (1,474) 938.80 6/12/09                 225,047
-24.80 6.53%        18,385 954.30 6/5/09                 226,521
22.40 9.29%        25,071 979.10 5/29/09                 208,136
25.50 6.79%        11,885 956.70 5/22/09                 183,065
16.70 3.95%        10,735 931.20 5/15/09                 171,180
29.20 2.08%          7,026 914.50 5/8/09                 160,445
-27.40 -1.18%          3,811 885.30 5/1/09                 153,419
45.90 1.88%         (3,901) 912.70 4/24/09                 149,608
-13.20 -3.24%             286 866.80 4/17/09                 153,509
-14.30 -1.77%       (28,703) 880.00 4/10/09                 153,223
-28.70 -0.17%             637 894.30 4/3/09                 181,926
-29.60 3.03%          5,605 923.00 3/27/09                 181,289
24.50 6.34%          2,833 952.60 3/20/09                 175,684
-10.30 3.60%       (15,550) 928.10 3/13/09                 172,851
-3.80 4.75%         (2,535) 938.40 3/6/09                 188,401
-52.50 5.18%         (5,424) 942.20 2/27/09                 190,936
53.60 11.04%          7,648 994.70 2/20/09                 196,360
30.10 5.05%        11,123 941.10 2/13/09                 188,712
-15.10 1.69%        19,213 911.00 2/6/09                 177,589
30.90 3.38%        19,445 926.10 1/30/09                 158,376
54.20 -0.07%         (2,632) 895.20 1/23/09                 138,931



Closer to a bottom?  Commercials, the ones who tend to "know," are curtailing their sales here.  Doesn't mean we can't go lower here.  We can.  Still........this indicator has proven rather uncanny in times past.