Sunday, January 15, 2012

Barrons Roundtable Results 2011

In today's issue, Barrons gave you a ton of data, but no summaries of how their celebrated stock pickers fared. So we did it ourselves and share it with you here:

Fred Hickey's Picks 9.24%
Bill Gross's Picks 8.35%
Mario Gabelli's Picks 6.07%
Abby Joseph Cohen's Picks -2.68%
Meryl Witmer's Picks -3.94%
Oscar Schafer's Picks -6.14%
Felix Zulauf's Picks -13.28%
Scott Black's Picks -13.64%
Marc Faber's Picks -14.26%
Archie MacAllaster's Picks -27.82% -5.81% avg


The publications own picks fared poorly as well, its bull picks losing 6.9%; its bearish picks fell 16.9%, however.

Touchdowns and Fumbles

By ANDREW BARY

Our bullish 2011 stock picks trailed the market, although our bearish calls did well. An A for PriceSmart and Mistras Group. An F for MF Global, RIM, Bank of America.

It wasn't a great year for Barron's bullish stock picks, but our bearish selections handily topped the market.

Shares of the 97 companies we wrote about favorably in 2011 fell, on average, 6.9%, compared with a 2.4% decline in their benchmarks, measured from the Friday before publication through year-end.

The disappointing 2011 showing came after two straight years in which our picks had beaten the market. We have been doing this report card annually since early 2004, with a tally of the prior year's picks and pans in January and a midyear update in July.

Our bullish picks trailed the averages in 2007 and 2008, but topped them each year from 2003 through 2006. For the performance of each of our stock picks and pans from recent years see—2011 Scorecard and 2010 Scorecard.

Our biggest 2011 winners were midsize companies like Price-Smart (ticker: PSMT), a fast-growing warehouse-club operator in the Caribbean and Latin America, and Mistras Group (MG), a provider of sensors to monitor the structural integrity of bridges, nuclear plants and other structures. Another touchdown: International Coal Group, which was acquired by Arch Coal (ACI) a few months after our bullish article ran last February.

We unfortunately had some big—at least 40%—losers, including MF Global, Research In Motion (RIMM), Bank of America (BAC), Nintendo (NTDOY) Juniper Networks (JNPR) and Morgan Stanley (MS). In our worst fumble, we were upbeat on former CEO Jon Corzine's effort to transform MF Global from a money-losing futures broker into a profitable, diversified securities outfit. Some losers have rallied in 2012, although both PriceSmart and Mistras are down from their year-end levels. It's early to judge many of our 2011 picks and pans, since we like to see how they do over 12 to 18 months.

Our bearish picks fell 16.9% on average, versus a 4.5% drop in their benchmarks. Of the 30 companies we panned, 21 declined, many substantially. We were correctly bearish on mortgage insurer PMI Group (PPMIQ), which filed for bankruptcy protection, and First Solar (FSLR), which was stung by a glut of solar panels. We also were skeptical on many hyped initial public offerings of companies with little or no profits, including those of LinkedIn (LNKD), Groupon (GRPN), Zipcar (ZIP) and Dunkin' Brands (DNKN), all of which have dropped.

Our worst bearish call was Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR), which soared after we questioned its growth prospects a year ago. We gave up on that call in a follow-up article in May. If we decide to retract a bullish or bearish call, often by abandoning a loser, we stop the clock at the time the follow-up article appears, not at year-end.

Our tally doesn't include industry articles that deal with many companies. It also doesn't reflect our columnists' picks and pans; they do their own report cards. We try to measure stocks against appropriate benchmarks, using the Standard & Poor's 500 for large-cap companies, the S&P 400 Mid-Cap index for midsize companies, and the Russell 2000 for small stocks.


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Some years ago, we did an exhaustive study of Barrons picks. Results were no better than 50-50.

Here are the individual picks from the experts summarized above:


Scott Black's Picks


Company Ticker 1/7/11 Price 12/30/2011 Change
JoS. A. Bank Clothiers JOSB $40.49 $48.76 20.40%
Aecom Technology ACM 26.77 20.57 -23.20%
China XD Plastics CXDC 5.7 5.34 -6.30%
Methanex MEOH 29.02 22.82 -21.40%
Vale VALE 34.98 21.45 -38.70%
General Cable BGC 33.71 25.01 -25.80%
TTM Technologies TTMI 14.03 10.96 -21.90%
Arrow Electronics ARW 34.71 37.41 7.80%





Abby Joseph Cohen's Picks

Company Ticker 1/7/11 Price 12/30/2011 Change
General Electric GE $18.43 $17.91 -2.80%
United Parcel Service UPS 72.15 73.19 1.40%
ExxonMobil XOM 75.59 84.76 12.10%
Roche Holding RHHBY 35.32 42.55 20.50%
Procter & Gamble* PG 64.5 66.71 3.40%
TRAVEL/LODGING


Shangri-La Asia 0069.Hong Kong HK$21.60 HK$ 13.40 -38.00%
InterContinental Hotels IHG $20.71 $17.99 -13.10%
Walt Disney DIS 39.45 37.5 -4.90%
*Goldman Sachs suspended coverage on 5/19/11, after analyst left firm.





Marc Faber's Picks


Investment Ticker 1/7/11 Price 12/30/2011 Change
ENERGY



Chevron CVX $91.19 106.4 16.70%
ExxonMobil XOM 75.59 84.76 12.10%
Occidental Petroleum OXY 96.19 93.7 -2.60%
Chesapeake Energy CHK 26.95 22.29 -17.30%
SouthGobi Resources SGQ.Canada C$13.50 C$ 6.00 -55.60%
SWISS INSURANCE STOCKS

Zurich Financial ZURN.Switzerland 248.80CHF 212.50 CHF -14.60%
Swiss Life SLHN.Switzerland 142.7 86.4 -39.50%
Swiss Re SREN.Switzerland 52.6 47.87 -9.00%
GOLD



Newmont Mining NEM $56.89 60.01 5.50%
Buy: Barrick Gold ABX 49.1 45.25 -7.80%
Sell: Barrick Gold options* 4.15

ASIAN STOCKS


Chang Mai Ram Medical** CMR.Thailand 46.00baht 50.00 baht 8.70%
AEON Thana Sinsap AEONTS.Thailand 32.5 28.5 -12.30%
MCOT MCOT.Thailand 29 26.75 -7.80%
Ascott Residence Trust A68U.Singapore S$ 1.24 S$ 0.99 -20.20%
JAPANESE STOCKS

Nomura Holdings NMR $6.52 $2.98 -54.30%
NTT DoCoMo DCM 17.11 18.35 7.20%
Mizuho Financial MFG 3.88 2.68 -30.90%
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial MTU 5.31 4.19 -21.10%
OTHER



Market Vectors Gulf States Index MES $24.13 $19.56 -18.90%
Oslo Bors OSLO.Norway 77.00NOK 59.00 NOK -23.40%
*July 2011 50 calls were trading at $4.15 on 1/7/11 and the stock traded at $50.25 on call expiration date.
**Removed pick in June; stock was up 41.3% through 6/6/11.





Mario Gabelli's Picks

Company Ticker 1/7/11 Price 12/30/2011 Change
Genuine Parts GPC $50.98 $61.20 20.00%
National Fuel Gas NFG 68.39 55.58 -18.70%
Fortune Brands* BEAM 61.47 68.26 11.00%
Sara Lee SLE 17.43 18.92 8.50%
Madison Square Garden MSG 24.93 28.64 14.90%
Energizer Holdings ENR 72.3 77.48 7.20%
Thomas & Betts TNB 47.6 54.6 14.70%
Crane CR 41.65 46.71 12.10%
Millicom International Cellular** MIICF 95.98 100.99 8.60%
U.S. Cellular USM 49.52 43.63 -11.90%
Brink's BCO 26.76 26.88 0.40%
2011 Roundtable Report Card






*Fortune Brands changed its name to Beam in October 2011 and spun off its security business as Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS). Price change reflects a 12/30/11 closing price of $51.23 for BEAM and $17.03 for FBHS.
**Price change adjusted to reflect $3 special dividend paid in December 2011





Bill Gross's Picks



Ticker 1/7/11 Price/Yield 12/30/11 Price/Yield Total Return
FUND



Pimco Corporate Opportunity Fund* PTY $17.17/12.0% $17.37/11.9% 13.20%
Company



Annaly Capital Management NLY $17.78/14.4% $15.96/14.2% 3.50%
*Includes special dividend.






Fred Hickey's Picks


Company Ticker 1/7/11 Price 12/30/2011 Change
Sprott Physical Gold Trust PHYS $11.85 $13.80 16.50%
Yamana Gold AUY 11.86 14.69 23.90%
Newmont Mining NEM 56.89 60.01 5.50%
eBay EBAY 27.7 30.33 9.50%
Microsoft MSFT 28.6 25.96 -9.20%
BONDS
1/7/11 Price/Yield 12/30/11 Price/Yield
2-Yr Canadian Government Bonds $99.61/1.7% $100.10/0.95%





Archie MacAllaster's Picks

Company Ticker 1/7/11 Price 12/30/2011 Change
Manulife Financial MFC $17.75 $10.62 -40.20%
Hartford Financial Services Warrants HIG/WS 19.11 9.14 -52.20%
Wells Fargo WFC 31.5 27.56 -12.50%
MetLife MET 46.07 31.18 -32.30%
Delta Air Lines DAL 13 8.09 -37.80%
Allied World Assurance AWH 58.23 62.93 8.10%





Oscar Schafer's Picks

Company Ticker 1/7/11 Price 12/30/2011 Change
Sensata Technologies Holding ST $30.47 $26.28 -13.80%
NXP Semiconductors NXPI 22.92 15.37 -32.90%
Hertz Global Holdings HTZ 14.39 11.72 -18.60%
Quantum QTM 4.3 2.4 -44.20%
Mako Surgical MAKO 14.1 25.21 78.80%





Meryl Witmer's Picks

Company Ticker 1/7/11 Price 12/30/2011 Change
Rockwood Holdings ROC $39.67 $39.37 -0.80%
Tronox TROX 94.5 120 27.00%
Six Flags Entertainment SIX 28.29 41.24 45.80%
Collective Brands PSS 20.94 14.37 -31.40%
Spansion CODE 20.88 8.28 -60.30%





Felix Zulauf's Picks


LONG Ticker 1/7/11 Price 12/30/2011 Change
CBOE VIX futures* $21.00 $27.15 29.30%
iPath DJ-UBS Grains Subindex Total Return ETN JJG 51.12 45.03 -11.90%
Uranium Participation U.Canada C$8.05 C$ 5.62 -30.20%
SHORT
1/7/11 Price 12/30/2011
Italian government bond futures** € 109.10 € 91.61 -16.00%
Euro Stoxx Bank Index futures** 158.9 99.2 -37.60%
*February 2011 contract and February 2012 contract
**March 2011 contract and March 2012 contract





Sources: Bloomberg, Pimco