Friday, May 11, 2012

What's next for gold? Here's one indicator

Lowest hedge level by commercials since --- gold was $895, 3 and 1/2 years ago.  Column to farthest right is net commercial contracts short:


-64.50 76.39%       (26,548) 1580.20 5/11/12                 151,455
-19.10 83.59%        10,766 1644.70 5/4/12                 178,003
21.00 85.73%         (8,854) 1663.80 4/27/12                 167,237
-14.40 83.38%          5,042 1642.80 4/20/12                 176,091
25.20 84.99%         (6,415) 1657.20 4/13/12                 171,049
-37.20 82.18%         (7,612) 1632.00 4/6/12                 177,464
5.50 86.33%        18,938 1669.20 3/30/12                 185,076
4.30 85.72%       (25,550) 1663.70 3/23/12                 166,138
-52.90 85.24%         (8,520) 1659.40 3/16/12                 191,688
-0.20 91.14%       (45,143) 1712.30 3/9/12                 200,208
-58.90 91.16%        16,049 1712.50 3/2/12                 245,351
48.30 97.74%        19,894 1771.40 2/24/12                 229,302
4.20 92.35%       (11,664) 1723.10 2/17/12                 209,408
-6.50 91.88%        11,210 1718.90 2/10/12                 221,072
-12.10 92.60%        30,094 1725.40 2/3/12                 209,862
70.90 93.95%          6,792 1737.50 1/27/12                 179,768
29.40 86.04%          6,402 1666.60 1/20/12                 172,976
20.60 82.76%          4,731 1637.20 1/13/12                 166,574
51.60 80.46%         (2,089) 1616.60 1/6/12                 161,843
-40.00 74.70%            (622) 1565.00 12/30/11                 163,932
7.50 79.16%       (21,663) 1605.00 12/23/11                 164,554
-117.50 78.33%       (15,283) 1597.50 12/16/11                 186,217
-30.30 91.44%          7,955 1715.00 12/9/11                 201,500
56.80 94.82%          1,132 1745.30 12/2/11                 193,545
-30.50 88.48%       (11,750) 1688.50 11/25/11                 192,413
-54.00 91.89%          7,228 1719.00 11/18/11                 204,163
24.00 97.92%        14,535 1773.00 11/11/11                 196,935
4.60 95.24%        14,286 1749.00 11/4/11                 182,400
105.70 94.72%          8,961 1744.40 10/28/11                 168,114
-41.30 82.92%         (9,325) 1638.70 10/21/11                 159,153
28.00 87.54%          3,727 1680.00 10/14/11                 168,478
27.20 84.41%         (1,932) 1652.00 10/7/11                 164,751
-22.20 81.37%       (30,945) 1624.80 9/30/11                 166,683
-162.60 83.85%       (12,840) 1647.00 9/23/11                 197,628
-49.80 102.00%       (17,246) 1809.60 9/16/11                 210,468
-22.50 107.56%        10,359 1859.40 9/9/11                 227,714
68.20 110.07%       (13,081) 1881.90 9/2/11                 217,355
-32.70 102.46%       (18,411) 1813.70 8/26/11                 230,436
101.20 106.11%            (359) 1846.40 8/19/11                 248,847
86.90 94.81%       (38,428) 1745.20 8/12/11                 249,206
33.40 85.11%          4,661 1658.30 8/5/11                 287,634
22.50 81.38%        19,159 1624.90 7/29/11                 282,973
8.30 78.87%        19,565 1602.40 7/22/11                 263,814
50.10 77.95%        42,247 1594.10 7/15/11                 244,249
57.70 72.35%         (6,753) 1544.00 7/8/11                 202,002
-13.30 65.91%       (42,492) 1486.30 7/1/11                 208,755
-37.90 67.40%        13,818 1499.60 6/24/11                 251,247
5.00 71.63%       (10,255) 1537.50 6/17/11                 237,429
-9.80 71.07%          7,176 1532.50 6/10/11                 247,684
6.80 72.16%        23,271 1542.30 6/3/11                 240,508
22.00 71.40%        10,288 1535.50 5/27/11                 217,237
19.80 68.95%       (14,632) 1513.50 5/20/11                 206,949
1.00 66.74%       (18,521) 1493.70 5/13/11                 221,581
-73.00 66.63%         (8,892) 1492.70 5/6/11                 240,102
60.70 74.78%       (17,554) 1565.70 4/29/11                 248,994
18.60 68.00%        12,860 1505.00 4/22/11                 266,548
11.50 65.92%         (4,977) 1486.40 4/15/11                 253,688
46.30 64.64%        17,896 1474.90 4/8/11                 258,665
-1.60 59.47%        15,970 1428.60 4/1/11                 240,769
10.50 59.65%          4,645 1430.20 3/25/11                 224,799
0.20 58.48%       (27,310) 1419.70 3/18/11                 220,154
-10.00 58.46%         (3,132) 1419.50 3/11/11                 247,464
20.90 59.57%        18,790 1429.50 3/4/11                 250,596
19.50 57.24%        13,180 1408.60 2/25/11                 231,806
33.20 55.06%          8,715 1389.10 2/18/11                 218,626
7.00 51.36%        16,714 1355.90 2/11/11                 209,911
11.00 50.58%         (4,286) 1348.90 2/4/11                 193,197
-4.00 49.35%         (8,988) 1337.90 1/28/11                 197,483
-17.20 49.79%       (18,593) 1341.90 1/21/11                 206,471
-10.50 51.71%       (29,518) 1359.10 1/14/11                 225,064
-51.60 52.89%         (5,188) 1369.60 1/7/11                 254,582
37.20 58.65%          7,962 1421.20 12/31/10                 259,770
8.50 54.49%       (16,327) 1384.00 12/24/10                 251,808
-11.60 53.54%       (10,538) 1375.50 12/17/10                 268,135
-21.40 54.84%          8,204 1387.10 12/10/10                 278,673
44.50 57.23%          6,576 1408.50 12/3/10                 270,469
11.80 52.26%         (1,015) 1364.00 11/26/10                 263,893
-16.20 50.94%       (26,045) 1352.20 11/19/10                 264,908
-25.80 52.75%        14,341 1368.40 11/12/10                 290,953
36.10 55.63%         (5,823) 1394.20 11/5/10                 276,612
30.40 51.60%       (10,647) 1358.10 10/29/10                 282,435
-39.20 48.21%         (6,940) 1327.70 10/22/10                 293,082
21.00 52.58%             524 1366.90 10/15/10                 300,022
28.50 50.24%         (3,242) 1345.90 10/8/10                 299,498
20.40 47.06%        10,432 1317.40 10/1/10                 302,740
22.70 44.78%            (631) 1297.00 9/24/10                 292,308
27.60 42.25%          5,259 1274.30 9/17/10                 292,939
-1.00 39.17%          3,119 1246.70 9/10/10                 287,680
11.80 39.28%        20,261 1247.70 9/3/10                 284,561
8.40 37.96%        14,730 1235.90 8/27/10                 264,300
12.10 37.02%        18,590 1227.50 8/20/10                 249,570
7.65 35.67%          8,951 1215.40 8/13/10                 230,980
25.65 34.82%         (5,526) 1207.75 8/6/10                 222,029
-6.20 31.96%        11,891 1182.10 7/30/10                 227,555
-2.50 32.65%       (32,684) 1188.30 7/23/10                 215,664
-18.80 32.93%            (794) 1190.80 7/16/10                 248,348
-2.10 35.03%       (40,814) 1209.60 7/9/10                 249,142
-42.70 35.26%          1,040 1211.70 7/2/10                 289,956
-2.60 40.03%          9,972 1254.40 6/25/10                 288,916
30.10 40.32%          5,367 1257.00 6/18/10                 278,944
9.50 36.96%          5,954 1226.90 6/11/10                 273,577
1.40 35.90%            (756) 1217.40 6/4/10                 267,623
39.00 35.74%       (11,365) 1216.00 5/28/10                 268,379
-57.80 31.39%         (2,900) 1177.00 5/21/10                 279,744
25.60 37.84%        11,058 1234.80 5/14/10                 282,644
30.90 34.98%          6,064 1209.20 5/7/10                 271,586
23.10 31.53%          8,126 1178.30 4/30/10                 265,522
19.70 28.95%         (6,088) 1155.20 4/23/10                 257,396
-25.50 26.75%        18,578 1135.50 4/16/10                 263,484
34.00 29.60%        37,215 1161.00 4/9/10                 244,906
19.20 25.80%       (16,132) 1127.00 4/2/10                 207,691
1.20 23.66%       (18,472) 1107.80 3/26/10                 223,823
4.00 23.53%         (9,492) 1106.60 3/19/10                 242,295
-29.40 23.08%             250 1102.60 3/12/10                 251,787
15.30 26.36%        13,493 1132.00 3/5/10                 251,537
-1.00 24.65%        18,166 1116.70 2/26/10                 238,044
26.50 24.77%          6,451 1117.70 2/19/10                 219,878
25.90 21.81%       (31,152) 1091.20 2/12/10                 213,427
-15.30 18.92%         (4,039) 1065.30 2/5/10                 244,579
-11.70 20.63%       (25,029) 1080.60 1/29/10                 248,618
-38.10 21.93%         (8,841) 1092.30 1/22/10                 273,647
-6.20 26.18%          3,937 1130.40 1/15/10                 282,488
41.60 26.88%            (391) 1136.60 1/8/10                 278,551
-9.50 22.23%         (6,723) 1095.00 1/1/10                 278,942
-8.00 23.29%       (18,126) 1104.50 12/25/09                 285,665
-2.50 24.19%          4,605 1112.50 12/18/09                 303,791
-46.40 24.47%         (9,045) 1115.00 12/11/09                 299,186
-5.10 29.64%          2,127 1161.40 12/4/09                 308,231
16.40 30.21%        24,558 1166.50 11/27/09                 306,104
31.60 28.38%         (1,238) 1150.10 11/20/09                 281,546
21.50 24.86%         (1,068) 1118.50 11/13/09                 282,784
50.90 22.46%             373 1097.00 11/6/09                 283,852
-8.60 16.77%       (14,014) 1046.10 10/30/09                 283,479
1.80 17.73%          1,567 1054.70 10/23/09                 297,493
4.90 17.53%        14,062 1052.90 10/16/09                 295,926
44.00 16.99%          6,630 1048.00 10/9/09                 281,864
13.30 12.07%       (12,376) 1004.00 10/2/09                 275,234
-15.30 10.59%          2,949 990.70 9/25/09                 287,610
0.30 12.30%        13,864 1006.00 9/18/09                 284,661
11.60 12.26%        54,089 1005.70 9/11/09                 270,797
38.00 10.97%          5,366 994.10 9/4/09                 216,708
2.20 6.73%          6,797 956.10 8/28/09                 211,342
0.30 6.48%       (18,360) 953.90 8/21/09                 204,545
-2.40 6.45%         (5,288) 953.60 8/14/09                 222,905
2.80 6.72%        25,672 956.00 8/7/09                 228,193
0.90 6.40%         (1,705) 953.20 7/31/09                 202,521
16.60 6.30%        21,939 952.30 7/24/09                 204,226
24.00 4.45%         (9,020) 935.70 7/17/09                 182,287
-20.80 1.77%         (6,511) 911.70 7/10/09                 191,307
-6.10 4.09%          3,388 932.50 7/3/09                 197,818
4.90 4.77%       (12,938) 938.60 6/26/09                 194,430
-5.10 4.23%       (17,679) 933.70 6/19/09                 207,368
-15.50 4.80%         (1,474) 938.80 6/12/09                 225,047
-24.80 6.53%        18,385 954.30 6/5/09                 226,521
22.40 9.29%        25,071 979.10 5/29/09                 208,136
25.50 6.79%        11,885 956.70 5/22/09                 183,065
16.70 3.95%        10,735 931.20 5/15/09                 171,180
29.20 2.08%          7,026 914.50 5/8/09                 160,445
-27.40 -1.18%          3,811 885.30 5/1/09                 153,419
45.90 1.88%         (3,901) 912.70 4/24/09                 149,608
-13.20 -3.24%             286 866.80 4/17/09                 153,509
-14.30 -1.77%       (28,703) 880.00 4/10/09                 153,223
-28.70 -0.17%             637 894.30 4/3/09                 181,926
-29.60 3.03%          5,605 923.00 3/27/09                 181,289
24.50 6.34%          2,833 952.60 3/20/09                 175,684
-10.30 3.60%       (15,550) 928.10 3/13/09                 172,851
-3.80 4.75%         (2,535) 938.40 3/6/09                 188,401
-52.50 5.18%         (5,424) 942.20 2/27/09                 190,936
53.60 11.04%          7,648 994.70 2/20/09                 196,360
30.10 5.05%        11,123 941.10 2/13/09                 188,712
-15.10 1.69%        19,213 911.00 2/6/09                 177,589
30.90 3.38%        19,445 926.10 1/30/09                 158,376
54.20 -0.07%         (2,632) 895.20 1/23/09                 138,931



Closer to a bottom?  Commercials, the ones who tend to "know," are curtailing their sales here.  Doesn't mean we can't go lower here.  We can.  Still........this indicator has proven rather uncanny in times past.

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